農業、農民與國家：中國經濟發展中的糧食價

Agriculture, Peasants, and the State: China's Grain Price in Economic Development

黃騏弘(Chi-Hung Huang)

《台灣政治學刊》 20卷1期 (2016/06) Pp. 107-167

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.201606.20(1).107-167

摘要

糧食是發展中國家的重要物資，糧食價格的波動不僅影響經濟發展的進行，也關係到農民的生計。中國的糧食價格在2004年之前的糧食雙軌制時期大起大落，2004年之後的全面市場化時期則轉為逐漸上升。此種價格波動的軌跡是奇特的，因為在經濟發展初期，如何避免糧食短缺是發展中國家主要的農業問題。即使克服了糧食短缺，在經濟發展過程中，糧食價格應該會逐漸上升，不至於發生糧食過剩使得價格連年下跌。本文運用二元經濟模型對中國糧價的變動提出解釋，並指出中國政府限制農民進城和強迫糧食生產的政策，造成糧食市場與勞動力市場的供需失衡，從而導致了糧食價格的不穩定。

關鍵字

二元經濟模型 ； 勞動力移動 ； 糧食價格 ； 強迫糧食生產 ； 經濟發展

並列摘要

Grain is an important commodity in developing counties. Fluctuations in grain prices not only influence the process of economic development, but also have an effect on the lives of peasants. A feature of China's grain price is that it fluctuated dramatically before 2004, and has been stable and has risen gradually since then. This price change pattern is distinct. Food shortages constitute the main agricultural problem in the early stages of economic development. Even if the problem could be avoid, however, it is unlikely that grain would end up in surplus while the economy grows rapidly at the same time. I argue that the fluctuation in China’s grain price can be explained by dual-economy model, the policies of labor mobility control and forced grain production throw both the food market and labor market out of balance, hence making the price unstable.

並列關鍵字

dual-economy model ； labor mobility ； grain price ； forced grain production ； economic development

參考文獻

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