都會區商業街廓用電預測之研究

本研究以台北市、台中市及台南市的商業區為對象，共擇定93處街廓樣本，透過現場調查以及GIS、台電用電、地政電傳等龐大資料，統計街廓內建築物的建蔽率、容積率、平均樓高、樓地板面積、實際用電量，並進行都市商業區街廓用電分析。所統計的93處街廓的土地用電強度為1082.8kWh/(m^2.yr)，標準差高達1377.1 kWh/(m^2.yr)，同時發現街廓用電與平均樓高、樓地板面積的相關關係並不很高，顯示街廓用電預測必須另外考慮實際街廓商業特性才行。有鑑於此，本研究依街廓內部建築物平均樓高及百貨商場、商店、旅館、辦公、住宅等業種組成比例，將商業街廓分為五種用電強度等級，以作為預測街廓用電量的變數。接著，本研究以街廓總樓地板面積、實際容積率、街廓用電強度、月平均氣溫等變數，建立了全年以及逐月的街廓用電量與街廓用電強度的預測公式，預測精度R^2值高達0.92~0.94。此公式提供了簡單、具體的都市用電量預測方法，未來可作為模擬都市人工發熱量、都市熱島效應的工具，也可作為都市能源、都市氣候、永續都市政策的參考。

關鍵字

商業活動強度；都市能源；用電強度

並列摘要

In order to analyze the electricity consumption of commercial blocks, this research chooses total 93 commercial blocks in Taipei, Taichung and Tainan city, separately, to collect the data by way of site investigation, GIS, Tai-Power database and land information system to calculate the building coverage ratio, floor space index, building stories and floor areas, and so on, of those blocks. The result of the analysis is that the average EUI of commercial block is 1082.8 kWh/(m^2.yr), with the high standard deviation of 1377.1 kWh/(m^2.yr), and there is low co-relationship neither between the electricity consumption and average building story nor between the electricity consumption and floor area. It shows that the prediction of electricity consumption has to take the commercial attributes into consideration. So this research classifies the commercial blocks to five grades according to the business composition of the commercial clocks and to be the variables of the prediction of electricity consumption. Then to build up the database of prediction formula of electricity consumption by whole year or the month round and gets the R^2 which has reached 0.92~0.94. This formula provides a simple, concrete and predictable method for urban electricity consumption. It will be used to simulate the urban artificial heat and urban heat island effects, as well as a reference of urban energy, urban climate and sustainable urban polices.