Initial Capacity Decision in an Uncertain Product Market

不確定產品市場中的起始產能決策

郭瑞基(Ruey-Ji Guo)

《Pan-Pacific Management Review》 14卷1期 (2011/01) Pp. 29-46

https://doi.org/10.30166/PPMR.201101.0002

摘要

在許多管理決策中，產品需求的不確定性，一直是相當重要的議題。特別是在新產品推出的初期，產能決策尤其要面對更大的需求變異。本研究的主要目的即在探討新產品推出初期，需求不確定性對於起始產能決策所可能造成的影響。在兩階段的決策模式分析下，研究發現若第二階段的產能調升成本相對顯著，則第一階段的最適起始產能水準將隨需求變異增加而上升；否則，其將隨需求變異增加而下降。

關鍵字

產能規劃 ； 成本管理 ； 需求不確定性

並列摘要

The uncertainty of demand for products has been a prominent issue in numerous management decisions, especially in the initial stage of providing a new product. Whether providing merchandise or a service, capacity decisions face large variances of demand. This paper addresses the impact of demand uncertainty on initial capacity decisions in the early period of providing a new product. Using a two-stage decision model, this paper finds that the optimal initial capacity level in stage one would ascend as demand variance increases if the cost of adding the capacity in stage two is relatively insignificant; otherwise, it would descend as demand uncertainty enlarges.

並列關鍵字

capacity planning ； cost management ； demand uncertainty

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