都市發展評估模式實證分析

An Evaluation Model on Urban Development

胡志平(Chich-Ping Hu)

《建築與規劃學報》 9卷1期 (2008/06) Pp. 37-55

https://doi.org/10.30054/JAP.200806.0003

摘要

都市事務是影響都市計劃的一大因素。目前台灣的都市計劃決策模式幾乎都是運用群體決策法，而群體決策法主要就是運用協商的方式來協調統合大家的意見。常常沒有經過理性檢討或採取多數決定的方式，決定案件的可行性。在這過程之間有許多是一般人不爲所知的黑箱作業。都市事務經不起民眾的抱怨，在使用一個月之後拆掉重新再建設一次，所增加的社會成本對國家社會更是一種傷害。本研究有鑒於此現在當務之急最重要的是應該是將決策過程透明化、客觀化才能塑造更好的都市事務建設。由許多研究顯示運用模糊德爾菲法、模糊層級分析法可以改善群體決策法相當多的失誤、失策，然而傳統的決策者常常依據自己習慣領域的不一樣，甚至是依據自己的偏好、背景而有不一樣的決策結果。若是運用模糊德爾菲法與模糊層級問卷法，則可避免在群體中所造成的失誤與失策。如能在決策過程中採用一種公開、透明；公平、客觀、平等的決策方式，這將是非常重要且非常必要的一件事情。本研究計畫目的主要是瞭解專家在都市事務設計時對都市環境品質認識、認同感不同程度的重要性。最後，在以新竹地區作爲模糊評估架構的實證案例，以「都市智慧型成長(Urban Smart Growth)」、「新城市主義(New Urbanism)」、「最適都市規模(Optimal City Size)」三種經營都市方式去驗證。

關鍵字

都事事務 ； 群體決策 ； 模糊德爾菲法 ； 模糊層級分析法 ； 新城市主義

並列摘要

Urban Affairs decision is the key influential element on urban planning. Most of the urban planning in Taiwan is decided with group decision making method which is mainly operated with mediation to integrate committee members' opinions. During the mediation process, the alternatives operative possibility is either not fully analyzed or decided by the majority rule. Such black box decision making about urban affairs cannot operated again and again because that the increased social cost from inappropriate decision will be harmful to the country. Due to the results described above, the most important issue of all is to formulate appropriate urban affairs model with open and objective decision process. The relative reviews demonstrated that Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process could be used to improve the weakness while applying group decision making method on urban affairs decisions. The traditional decision makers in the past always made decisions according to their own preference and specialization instead of rational analysis. By applying Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process on urban affairs decisions, the problems from group decision making method can be avoided. It is very important to use the open, fair, and objective decision pattern on urban affairs. The purpose of this paper is to formulate the evaluation model of urban affairs including expertise perception on urban environmental quality analysis as well as weighting measurement of perception factors. Finally, HsinChu area is used as an example to evaluate the urban development patterns among the alternatives of ”Urban Smart Growth”, ”New Urbanism”, and ”Optimal City Size”.

並列關鍵字

Urban Affairs ； Group Decision Making ； Fuzzy Delphi Method ； Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ； New Urbanism

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