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土石流災害下行動弱勢族群疏散避難決策影響因素之研究

A Study on the Influence Factors of the Mobility-Disadvantage Group Evacuation Decision-making in Debris Flow Vulnerable Area

摘要


本研究透過問卷調查的方式,針對新竹縣尖石鄉、南投縣水里鄉的行動弱勢者,調查實際土石流災害下行動弱勢族群之災害認知與疏散避難行爲特性,再與無土石流災害下之預期認知進行分析比較。土石流方面,實際避難時最爲信賴「行政單位的廣播宣導」消息來源;土石流認知方面,實際避難行爲較預期認知認同「土石流防災宣導與避難演練對您很有幫助」之認知;避難考量因素方面,實際避難行爲則明顯比預期認知較爲重視「過去的受災經驗」此項因數,因此災害之預期認知與實際行爲兩者並非全然相同。應用二元羅吉斯特迴歸方法,建立行動弱勢族群「是否採取避難」、「是否需要協助」、「避難過程所需時間」之三種避難疏散行爲模式,解釋災害認知、外在環境與災民本身特質等避難因素間之關係。模式發現有接獲避難訊息、所得較高、有危機意識與土石流防救災知識的行動弱勢族群,進行疏散避難的比例較高;也發現行動弱勢族群最需要交通工具與輔助設備的協助;此外行動弱勢族群傾向選擇熟悉的路線,而造成整體避難過程較爲耗時。最後依據前述對行動弱勢族群之疏散避難需求與行爲特性之掌握,本研究對相關部門提出行動弱勢族群防救災對策之建議。

並列摘要


To realize the evacuation behaviors of the mobility-disadvantage group in debris flow disasters, this study conducts questionnaire survey to understand their disaster perception and actual evacuation behaviors. Two debris flow vulnerable townships were selected as study areas including Shuili Township in Nantou County and Jianshi Township in Hsinchu County. This research finds that the most reliable source for evacuation warning is from the governmental authorities. The results of this study shows evacuation expectations have significantly differ from the actual behavior on the awareness of the benefits from evacuation drills and past disaster experience. This study also establish binary logistic regression model considering the factors of ”actual evacuation”, ”help from others” and ”evacuation times”. The results from the models show that mobility-disadvantage group with ”informed to evacuate”, ”safety knowledge”, ”higher income” has higher evacuate proportion. The result also show that the most valuable help for mobility-disadvantage group is providing evacuation vehicles as well as related equipments. In addition, the mobility-disadvantage group tends to choose their familiar route for evacuation which may extend the evacuation time. This study suggests that the current governmental evacuation plan should have special focus on the mobility-disadvantage group.

參考文獻


土石流防災資訊網,2010,土石流分布,http://246.swcb.gov.tw,2010 年7 月10 日下載。
Cornell LawSchool(2010).www.law.cornell.edu ,(August 9,2010).
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