論中共可能犯台模式與我國因應之道

Scenarios for PRC's Invasion and Taiwan's Countermeasures

劉廣華(Kuang-Hua Liu)

《全球政治評論》 6期 (2004/04) Pp. 75-96

https://doi.org/10.29899/JRM.200404.0004

摘要

從近程來看，目前臺海兩岸的軍事現況基於中共改採勸誘手段、經濟力量大為提昇、以及美「中」關係改善等諸多因素，故兩岸態勢相對穩定。若從長程的角度觀之，則由於兩岸軍力失衡、台獨聲浪高漲、以及中共內部政經問題等因素之影響，變數較大。至於兩岸軍力對比方面，一般的共識是，至少在2005年之前我國應仍掌握海、空優。而在中共大規模渡海登陸能力仍不足的狀況下，真正對我國國家安全造成威脅的仍是中共在東南沿海部署的飛彈部隊。諸如低層次騷擾、封鎖、有限攻擊、以及全面攻擊等傳統中共犯台模式有其限制，付諸實行的可能性亦不高。事實上，中共在兩次波灣戰爭的影響之下，其軍事戰略已有大幅轉變。也因此，高科技精準制導武器、資訊戰、以及心理威懾遂成為當前對我國家安全之最大威脅。而中共最可能的動武模式也已轉為以奇襲、癱瘓、斬首、進而逼降的非傳統手段。在因應的做法上，我國除了應強化全民作戰意志之外，亦應策定具體的戰力保存措施，以及建立反制資訊戰與精準攻擊的能力。

關鍵字

中共犯台 ； 中共軍力 ； 飛彈威脅 ； 奇襲 ； 癱瘓 ； 斬首

並列摘要

In the short term, the military status across the Taiwan Strait is relatively stable due to such factors as PRC's less aggressive attitude toward ROC for the time being, PRC's growing economic strength, and improved relations between the US and PRC. In the long term, the situation might be less stable owing to the fact that military imbalances in the Taiwan Strait might appear in the near future, Independence movement might gain momentums, and PRC might face internal political and economic problems. As for the military powers on both sides of the Strait, it is generally agreed that the ROC will maintain air and sea superiority until at least 2005. As a matter of fact, PLA's military strategy has been greatly transformed based on the lessons learned from the two Gulf Wars. As a result, high-tech precision guided munitions, information warfare, and psychological intimidation have become the greatest threats against ROC national security. In response to these nontraditional measures, the ROC should strengthen the people's will to fight, formulate concrete measures for the preservation of combat power, and build up anti-information warfare and anti-precision attack capabilities.

並列關鍵字

PRC invasion ； PLA military power ； missile threat ； surprise attack ； paralyzing ； decapitation