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臺灣選民的期望落差、社會監督與國會評價-第九屆立法院的分析

Voters' Expectation Discrepancy, Citizen Watch, and Congressional Performance: An Analysis of the Ninth Legislative Yuan in Taiwan

摘要


民主國家的民眾對國會越來越不滿意,考量到持續的不滿可能造成民主正當性的危機,現有研究嘗試從制度層面找到解方,探究如何設計選舉或議事表決程序等制度,以規範國會議員的代表行為,使其達成民眾所託付的職責。然而,較少研究深入選民的心理,了解人民心中所設想的立委角色和國會的表現,並檢視民間社會的自主監督,是否影響此二者之間的關係。爰此,本文從期望理論的觀點切入,透過電訪1,810個樣本來呈現此間樣貌。研究發現,給予立院較低分數的群體,其共同特質是對現實存有期望上的落差,無論是強調立委議事角色或注重選區利益的選民,皆會對立委的代表行為偏向另一方而感到不滿。這樣的情形在控制社會監督因素之後產生了些微變化,說明不僅選民對評鑑結果的信任能夠顯著地解釋國會評價,選民期望和國會評價之間的關係亦很可能受到外部評鑑資訊影響,儘管其效果不算十分突出。本文藉由不同以往的測量方式,補充現有文獻在捕捉選民期望及其評斷國會表現時的不足之處,並指出社會監督此一變數有助於解釋選民如何評價國會。因此,倘若此類團體能中立且客觀地呈現各式資訊,應有助於促進國會議員和民眾的相互理解,進而維繫高品質的民主政治運作,而更細緻的因果鏈則有賴後續研究深入探究。

並列摘要


Considering that continuous dissatisfaction with the performance of congress may cause a crisis of democratic legitimacy, hence, existing research attempts to find a solution from the institutional level, exploring how to design elections rules or voting procedures and other systems to regulate the behavior of members of Congress and enable them to fulfill the duties entrusted by the people. However, little research has been done to understand expectations for the role of Congress in the minds of voters and the potential effect of civic organizations on the relationships between congressional performance and expectation discrepancy of the citizens. Drawing from a telephone survey data conducted in Taiwan (n=1,810), 2020, the authors found that the expectation discrepancy among the citizens indeed occurred. Our multiple linear regression models show that the citizens who either expect their members of congress to be a lawmaker or a constituency services provider tended to disapprove of the congress if expectation discrepancy occurred. In addition, this correlation might be influenced by information provided by civic organizations even though the coefficients are slightly changed. Compared to previous studies that demonstrate institution matters, the findings suggest that the voter's expectation discrepancy on congressional disapproval is significant while external stimulations from civic organizations are taken into consideration. Nevertheless, further research employing experiment design data or panel survey methods is encouraged to confirm these causal relationships.

參考文獻


Mondak, Jeffery J., Edward G. Carmines, Robert Huckfeldt, Dona-Gene Mitchell, and Scot Schraufnagel (2007). “Does Familiarity Breed Contempt? The Impact of Information on Mass Attitudes toward Congress.” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51, No. 1:34-48.
Mutz, Diana C. and Byron Reeves (2005). “The New Videomalaise: Effects of Televised Incivility on Political Trust.” American Political Science Review, Vol. 99, No. 1:1-15.
Norris, Pippa (2011). Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Oliver, Richard L. (1980). “A Cognitive Model of the Antecedents and Consequences of Satisfaction Decisions.” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 17, No. 4:460-469.
Ramirez, Mark D. (2012). “The Policy Origins of Congressional Approval.” The Journal of Politics, Vol. 75, No. 1:198-209.

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