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以零和博弈解析中華女籃攻守表現的影響因子

Analyze on Offense and Defense Performance of the Chinese Taipei Female Basketball Team: An Implementation of Zero Sum Game

摘要


本研究的主要目的是以“零和博奕”爲的方式,來探討影響中華女子籃球隊的攻守表現。以參加2005年世界大學運動會中華女子籃球隊及對戰的七場比賽隊伍爲研究對象。以中華女子籃球隊的得分及失分爲效標變項,並以該隊及對戰隊伍的兩分球投球數、兩分球命中數、三分球投球數、三分球命中數、罰球投球數、罰球命中數、進攻籃板球、助攻數、失誤數、防守籃板球、抄截數、阻攻數、犯規數等十三種技術表現爲預測變項,使用遞減式複迴歸法來預測中華女子籃球隊的得分及失分表現,資料考驗差檢定水準設定爲α=.05。結果:中華女子籃球隊的兩分球投球數、三分球命中數、罰球命中數、進攻籃板數及對戰球隊的防守籃板數及阻攻數能有效預測中華女子籃球隊的得分;對戰球隊的兩分球命中數、三分球投球數、罰球命中數、進攻籃板數及中華女子籃球隊的犯規數及阻攻數能有效預測中華隊的失分。結論:中華女子籃球隊進攻時,以三分區域攻防的屬性值最高,其次是兩分區域攻防,再其次是罰球的穩定度,最後是投籃或罰球不進時本隊如何增加獲取進攻籃板的機會。中華女子籃球隊防守時,首先應注意避免過多的犯規,使對隊獲得罰球的機會,其次是當對隊投籃或罰球不進時,應防止該隊獲得進攻籃板。

關鍵字

博奕理論 籃球

並列摘要


The main purpose of this research was to use the zero sum game to discuss the Chinese Taipei Female Basketball (CTFB) team to attack or to defend. The CTFB team and seven competition teams are the objects of this study. Using the CTFB team's scores and losing points as dependent variable. Take the CTFB team and its competitors' two point attempts, 2-point made, 3-point attempts, 3-point made, free throw attempts, free throw made, offensive rebounds, assists, turnovers, defensive rebounds, steals, blocked shots and fouls, these 13 technical performances as forecast variables. Backward Selection Multiple Regression was used to seek the best forecast variable combination to forecast that the CTFB team's score and points allowed the performance. Material test difference examination standard hypothesis is set at α=.05. Research Findings: CTFB team's 2-point attempts, 3-point made, free throw made, offensive rebounds, and competitor's defensive rebounds and blocked shots are effective in predicting the scores of CTFB team. The competitor's 2-point made, 3-point attempts, free throw made, offensive rebounds along and CTFB team's fouls and blocked shots are effective in forecasting the missing points of CTFB team. Conclusion: When CTFB team played attacks, our advantages are: 3-point zone defense strategy, 2-point zone defense, free throw accuracy, and offensive rebounds. When playing defense, CTFB team needs to avoid having too much fouls thus avoiding opponent team to have more free throw attempts. They also need to prevent opponent teams to have too many offensive rebounds when they missed field goals of free throws.

並列關鍵字

game theory basketball

參考文獻


陳順義、李鴻棋、張又文(2005)。不同籃球防守戰術對球隊技術表現的影響。文化體育學刊。3,72-78。
Ortega, E.,Palao, J. M.,Gómez, M. A.,Lorenzo, A.,Cárdenas, D.(2007).Analysis of the efficacy of possessions in boys' 16-and-under basketball teams: differences between winning and losing teams.Perceptual and Motor Skills.104(3 Pt 1),961-964.
Sampaio, J.,Godoy, S. I.,Feu, S.(2004).Discriminative power of basketball game-related statistics by level of competition and sex.Perceptual and Motor Skills.99(3 Pt 2),1231-1238.
Sampaio, J.,Ibáñez, S.,Lorenzo, A.,Gómez, M.(2006).Discriminative game-related statistics between basketball starters and nonstarters when related to team quality and game outcome.Perceptual and Motor Skills.103(2),486-494.
吳定(2003)。公共政策辭典。台北市:五南出版社。

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