我國入會後農產品進口衝擊之模擬分析

Simulation Analysis of Taiwan's Agricultural Industry after Accession to WTO

黃智輝(Chi-Huei Huang) ； 廖芳心(Fan-Shin Lao) ； 黃孟瑩(Meng-Ying Huang)

《華人前瞻研究》 4卷1期 (2008/05) Pp. 37-54

https://doi.org/10.6428/JCTF.200805.0037

摘要

加入WTO後，我國必須履行WTO協商之承諾，調降各類產品之進口關稅，取消各類進口管制、削減境內補貼等貿易保護措施，國內農產品在未來勢必面對低價進口品的衝擊影響，如何在短時間內快速評估產業損失，值得相關政府單位多加重視。臺灣目前並無農產品貿易救濟案例，為避免國外農產品大量進口，影響我農民權益，本研究以紅豆、椰子、梨子、香菇、乾金針之農產品於實施關稅配額及特別防衛進口制度作為研究對象，並蒐集其產業及國內市場狀況之相關資料，加以研析，利用COMPAS模型預測在取消紅豆、椰子、梨子、香菇、乾金針之相關係護措施後所可能帶來之衝擊影響，結果發現一旦政府相關保護措施的取消，農產品之價格、產出帶來大幅度的負面影響。但對總體經濟淨福利仍有正面效果。本研究結果可提供我國目前正在實施之23項關稅配額(Tariff Rate Quota, TRQ)，其中更有15項可以實施特別防衛措施(Special Safeguard; SSG)之產品推估其成本與收益及損害衡量之參考指標，作為政府部門事先預為輔導開放及彌補損害之依據。

關鍵字

特別防衛措施 ； COMPAS模型 ； 關稅配額

並列摘要

Taiwan is a nation of small fanning system, and for a long time the agriculture sector has been protected by the government's protective policies such as high customs duties, quotas, and subsidies. After joining WTO, however, our nation must commit to the terms specified by WTO, including lowering duties for imported products, lifting import restrictions, and reducing subsidies which are primarily focused on agricultural products. Taiwan's agricultural products will meet the impacts from cheaper imports in the future, and the authority needs to determine a way to quickly assess the industrial losses within a very short period of time. In this study, we use the Commerce Policy Analysis System (or ”COMPAS” for short) developed by the International Trade Commission of the U.S. to assess the industrial losses seen in agricultural products and the impact on the industry if the needed tariff quota policies or SSG (Special Safeguard) for certain agricultural products are lifted. In order to prevent Taiwan's farmers from being affected by massive imported agricultural products, tariff rate quota and SSG on adzuki beans, coconuts, pears, shiitake, dry lily flower are selected as the research subject. We have also collected the related data on this industry and Taiwan's market for further analysis. COMPAS was used to estimate the possible impacts once the protective measures are lifted, and we have determined that once the government lifts the relevant measures, there will be drastic, negative influences on adzuki beans, coconuts, pears, shiitake, dry lily flower price and output, but there are still have positive influence on net economic welfare effect in all. The results of our study serve as references for the 23 tariff rare quotas that Taiwan is practicing, and 15 of them can serve as the references for determining the cost, benefits, and loses of products under SSG, allowing the government to provide needed support and compensations for the possible losses in advance.

並列關鍵字

Special Safeguard ； COMPAS Model ； Tariff Rate Quota TRQ