來台旅客消費結構分析

The Analysis of Consumption Structure for Foreign Tourists in Taiwan

鄒幼涵(You-Han Tsou) ； 李仁棻(Jen-Fen Li) ； 黃登源(Teng-Yuen Huang)

《商業現代化學刊》 4卷2期 (2007/09) Pp. 23-30

https://doi.org/10.6132/JCM.2007.4.2.03

摘要

交通部觀光局每年均舉辦來台旅客消費及動向調查以便了解旅客對我國觀光資源、環境之認知程度、其來台期間旅遊之動向及消費行爲，而估算我圍觀光外匯收入爲調查主要目的之一。深度探討影響旅客此次來台消費金額之變數，分析不同消費族群之結構特性，建構合適模型，可應用於調查資料遺漏值之插補。本研究依據歷年觀光局「觀光統計年報」及「來台旅客消費及動向調查」資料，應用於顧客消費金額之結構分析中，建立適當的邏輯斯迴歸模型，過程中採用基因演算法，並以傳統方法爲比較基礎，獲得整體最適解，並進行模型評估及精筒。本文分析結果發現：年齡與過夜日數是影響來台旅客消費金額高低的關鍵特質。瞭解消費金額高低之顧客的組成要素後，將可以作爲行銷策略擬訂時之參考。

關鍵字

順序邏輯斯迴歸 ； 基因演算法 ； 決策樹 ； 自動互動檢視法 ； 赤池資訊準則

並列摘要

To help understand the motives, the recognition of environment, the tendency of traveling and the consuming behaviors of foreign tourists in Taiwan, the Ministry of Communications of Taiwan Tourism Bureau conducts the investigations of foreign tourists' consumption and tendency annually. In addition, the estimation of foreign exchange revenue is also one of the main purposes. In recent years, Taiwan Tourism Bureau has made every effort in providing the adequate tourist information and good sightseeing facilities with successful marketing strategies that can enormously promote the Taiwan's image in international sightseeing. Based on Taiwan Tourism Bureau's ”Tourism Statistical Annual Report” and ”the Annual Report of the Investigation of Foreign Tourists' Consumption and Tendency”, this study analyzes the structure characteristics of the distinct consumer groups, builds a model, and applies it to the investigation where the interpolation of missing data values may occur. Accordingly, through the framework of customers' consumption level, the model of logistic regression was built, the method of genetic algorithm was applied, and when compared to traditional method the optimal solution was achieved, which includes model evaluation and simplification. The findings suggest that both age and days of stay are most critical the factors influencing foreign tourists' consumption level in terms of money they spent. It is noted that understanding of foreign tourists' consumption level can help the formulation of marketing strategy for tourism or traveling companies.

並列關鍵字

Logistic Regression ； Genetic Algorithms ； Consuming Behaviors