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投球數對美國大聯盟先發投手後續表現的影響

The Effect of Pitch Count on Subsequent Performance in Major League Baseball Starting Pitchers

摘要


The performance of pitchers has significant impact of winning games in professional baseball. The increased number of pitched balls could result in the decline in subsequent performance, or even lead to injury. However, the scientific evidence for the optimal loading is still lacking. This study analyzed 16383 games from 520 starting pitcher-year from Major League Baseball between 2001 and 2006. The loading was calculated by pitcher abuse point 3, defined by PAP3 = (number of pitch - 100)3; PAP3 =0 if pitch<100. The loading was categorized into 4 groups according to the accumulated PAP3 in 3 consecutive games: PAP3G1 (0), PAP3G2 (1-375), PAP3G3 (376-3000), PAP3G4 (>3000). The difference in performance between the previous and subsequent 3 games was calculated. The pitchers were categorized into 4 workload groups according to the median of numbers of pitches in starts, or categorized into 3 pitching types (power, finesse, average). The effect of PAP3 accumulations on the difference between the previous and subsequent performance was analyzed. In all workload and pitching type groups, the ratios of worse performance in SO/PA, fielding independent pitching, and earned run average in the subsequent 3 games were increased as the accumulations of PAP3 increase. In pitchers with different workloads, the ratios of worse performance started to increase at around the medians of their pitch counts. The ratios of worse performance started to increase in PAPG3 in finesse and average pitchers, while they were increased in PAPG4 in power pitchers. This study indicated that the increased numbers of pitches would result in poorer performance in the subsequent games in MLB starting pitchers, regardless of their workloads or pitching types. Different types of pitchers seem to be able to tolerate different workloads. However, PAP3 higher than 3000 in the previous 3 games combined would negatively affect all types of pitchers.

並列摘要


The performance of pitchers has significant impact of winning games in professional baseball. The increased number of pitched balls could result in the decline in subsequent performance, or even lead to injury. However, the scientific evidence for the optimal loading is still lacking. This study analyzed 16383 games from 520 starting pitcher-year from Major League Baseball between 2001 and 2006. The loading was calculated by pitcher abuse point 3, defined by PAP3 = (number of pitch - 100)3; PAP3 =0 if pitch<100. The loading was categorized into 4 groups according to the accumulated PAP3 in 3 consecutive games: PAP3G1 (0), PAP3G2 (1-375), PAP3G3 (376-3000), PAP3G4 (>3000). The difference in performance between the previous and subsequent 3 games was calculated. The pitchers were categorized into 4 workload groups according to the median of numbers of pitches in starts, or categorized into 3 pitching types (power, finesse, average). The effect of PAP3 accumulations on the difference between the previous and subsequent performance was analyzed. In all workload and pitching type groups, the ratios of worse performance in SO/PA, fielding independent pitching, and earned run average in the subsequent 3 games were increased as the accumulations of PAP3 increase. In pitchers with different workloads, the ratios of worse performance started to increase at around the medians of their pitch counts. The ratios of worse performance started to increase in PAPG3 in finesse and average pitchers, while they were increased in PAPG4 in power pitchers. This study indicated that the increased numbers of pitches would result in poorer performance in the subsequent games in MLB starting pitchers, regardless of their workloads or pitching types. Different types of pitchers seem to be able to tolerate different workloads. However, PAP3 higher than 3000 in the previous 3 games combined would negatively affect all types of pitchers.

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