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印太戰略下的兩岸關係

Cross-strait Relations under the Indo-Pacific Strategy

摘要


2018年美國鑑於中國崛起成為大國之後,對外實施擴張主義,衝擊印太區域安全、國際秩序和現狀,因應中國擴張之威脅。美國再次迎來對中政策產生重大轉變,自冷戰結束以來的接觸合作政策已然不再,代之而起的是競爭與對抗的策略。為了有效在區內制衡中國,美國和日、印、澳組成四方安全機制,從太平洋到印度洋對中國全面實施圍堵與遏制,也就是所謂的「印太戰略」。在「印太戰略」架構下,台灣自然成為牽制中國最為重要的戰略籌碼,同時也是「印太戰略」關鍵中的關鍵、核心中的核心。美國對中政策的改變是地緣政治重大事件, 此次改變將美、中、台三邊的關係回了中美建交前的狀態,台灣和美國在印太架構下成為夥伴關係,為了保護台灣不被中國併吞,美國近年積極強化台灣防衛能力,出售許多先進且具攻擊性武器。此舉挑動中國在台灣問題上的敏感神經,於是加大對台灣的軍事壓力,使得兩岸關係雪上加霜。為瞭解「印太戰略」之下的兩岸關係走向,探討如何降低當前兩岸關係壓力,本文以戰略三角理論分析美、中、台三邊互動關係,結合歷史研究途徑,探討未來可能面臨之嚴峻挑戰,並提出策進建議。經分析顯示,未來兩岸關係主要挑戰來自於美中競爭對抗、兩岸官方的互不往來,以及中國對台軍事威懾的增加等,唯有加大民間交流、跳脫現有格局框架及強化國防戰力建設,才能避免兩岸爆發戰爭,確保台海和區域穩定和平。

並列摘要


After China's rise in 2018, it implemented expansionist policies that posed a threat to regional security and challenged international order and norms. In response to this threat, the United States shifted its policy towards China from one of engagement and cooperation since the end of the Cold War to one of competition and confrontation. Through the Quad security mechanism with Japan, India, and Australia, the United States sought to contain and counter China comprehensively from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, which is also known as the "Indo-Pacific strategy." Within this framework, Taiwan naturally became a crucial strategic card to check China's ambitions, and also the key core of the "Indo-Pacific strategy." The U.S. policy shift towards China is a significant geopolitical event that has brought the relations between the U.S., China, and Taiwan back to the pre-establishment of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and China. Taiwan has become a partner of the United States within the Indo-Pacific framework, and the United States has actively strengthened Taiwan's defense capabilities in order to protect it from China's authoritarian regime's annexation, but this has already triggered China's sensitive nerves on the Taiwan issue and increased military pressure on Taiwan, making cross-strait relations even more strained. In order to understand the direction of cross-strait relations under the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and to avoid an escalating situation, this article uses the strategic triangle theory to analyze the interactions among the U.S., China, and Taiwan and combines historical research methods to explore the potential challenges that may arise in the future and provide policy recommendations. The analysis shows that the main challenges to cross-strait relations in the future come from the U.S.-China competition and confrontation, the lack of official contacts between the two sides, and China's increasing military intimidation of Taiwan. Only by increasing people-to-people exchanges, breaking free from the existing framework, and strengthening national defense capabilities can the outbreak of war between the two sides be avoided and regional stability and peace be ensured.

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