台北市房屋價格指數與總體經濟景氣指標之連動研究

The Relationship of Housing Price Index in Taipei City and Macroeconomic Index

李元華(Yuan-Hua Lee)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2009.10015

摘要

摘 要

台北市居高不下的房屋價格雖然使投資不動產者享受到「保值」與「獲利」，卻也造成市民購屋負擔加重，甚至有房價何時會崩跌之「泡沫化」疑慮。因不動產價格深受總體經濟景氣變化而波動，故考量總體經濟因素對台北市房價的連動關係與影響程度，為本研究所希望探討的問題。

本研究分別選定代表台北市中古屋價格之信義房價指數與代表台北市預售屋價格之國泰房地產指數，與四個總體經濟變數作共整合與因果分析，據以判斷影響台北市房價之總體經濟因素為何。

本研究所歸納出的主要結論有下列兩點：(1)台北市的中古屋價格與選取的總體經濟變數間存在長期穩定之均衡關係，且個別總體變數與台北市中古屋房價間分別存在單向或雙向影響之領先、落後因果關係。(2)台北市的預售屋房價與選取的總體經濟變數間也存在長期穩定之均衡關係，且個別總體變數與台北市預售屋房價間也存在單向影響之領先、落後因果關係。

關鍵字

台北市 ； 房價指數 ； 總體經濟變數 ； 共整合檢定 ； 誤差修正模型 ； 因果分析

並列摘要

Abstract
The high housing price in Taipei City although causes the investment of real estate enjoys “to maintain the value” and “to earn profit”, also causes the citizen to buy house burden to aggravate and even worry housing price when will collapse. Because the real estate price is subjected to the variety of macroeconomic prosperity and motion, therefore the consideration of macroeconomic factors move relation and influence degree to the housing price in Taipei City is this institute hopes for inquiring.

This research designed separately with the Sinyi Housing Price Index and Cathay Real Estate Index to represent the used housing price and pre-sale housing price in Taipei City, makes integration and causality analysis with the four selected macroeconomic variables. And judging which the main factors will influence the housing price in Taipei City.

Out of this research summarized the main conclusion of the following two points :(1) The used housing price in Taipei City and selected macroeconomic variables exists a long-term stability of the equilibrium relationship, and individual variable and used housing price in Taipei City exists respectively one-way or two-way influence the lead, behind causation.(2)The pre-sale housing price in Taipei City and selected macroeconomic variables also exists a long-term stability of the equilibrium relationship, and individual variable and pre-sale housing price in Taipei City also exists respectively one-way influence the lead, behind causation.

並列關鍵字

Taipei City ； housing price index ； macroeconomic index ； cointegration test ； VECM ； causality test

參考文獻

白金安、張金鶚﹙1996﹚，「預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異影響之研究」，《財務金融學刊》，第三卷第二期，99-114。

Roulac, S. E.,(1996),“Real Estate Market Cycles, Transformation Forces and System Change,” Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management,pp.1-17.

張麗姬﹙1994﹚，「從遠期契約和現貨的角度論預售屋和成屋的價格關係—以台北市為例」，《住宅學報》，第二期，67-85。

黃瓊瑩、林秋瑾﹙2004﹚，「購屋住宅投資風險衡量之研究-風險值之應用」，《中華民國住宅學會第八屆論文集》，1-16。

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