農會選舉與農會信用部營運的關聯性分析-以臺北和新北地區農會為例

The Correlation between the Election and the Operation of the Credit Department of the Farmer Association-A Case Study of Taipei and New Taipei Farmers' Associations

劉庭光(Ting-Guang Liou)

指導教授 ： 張宏浩

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202201966

摘要

在過往文獻中，有許多關於農會信用部營運的相關研究，舉凡農業信用部營之運效率、生產力等，農會選舉方面的研究探討則相對缺乏。在臺灣方面，農會選舉的關注度較一般總統、縣市首長選舉低，推測可能的原因為農會選舉的選舉月份大多於2月份或3月份舉行，與一般總統、縣市首長選舉月份不同，且能參與農會選舉投票的人數並不多。然而，地方派系以及賄選問題一直都是農會選舉長期以來的問題。在農會信用部方面，農會信用部提供存、放款類業務、代收、代繳各項事業費用、保管出租業務和買賣外幣現鈔等業務，是農民最便捷的金融機構。本研究以雙北地區農會為研究對象，利用2017年至2021年農會年報以及農會信用部營運概況表資料進行驗證分析，實證模型方面，採用個體以及時間的固定效果模型，探究2017年和2021年雙北地區農會選舉與農會信用部營運的關聯性研究，並以存放比率、逾放比率、備抵呆帳覆蓋率以及資本適足率作為參考指標。研究結果顯示，2017年選舉當月之備抵呆帳覆蓋率明顯比選舉前後一個月來的低，2021年則是在選舉前一個月至選舉後一個月有上升的趨勢，整體波動幅度較大。資本適足率方面2017年資本適足率值在選前一個月至選舉當月有些微上升，選後一個月有下降趨勢，2021年則是在選前一個月至選後一個月有下降的趨勢。固定效果迴歸模型方面，2021年選舉當月、選舉前後一個月對逾放比率有顯著負的影響。

關鍵字

農會發展、地方派系、營運效率、農會信用部、固定效果模型

並列摘要

In the past literature, there are many related studies on the operation of the credit department of the Farmers' Association, but the research on the election is relatively lacking. In Taiwan, Farmers' Association elections are less concerned than general elections for presidents and county and city heads. This study takes Taipei and New Taipei area Farmers' Association as the research object, and uses the annual report of Farmers' Association from 2017 to 2021 and the operation summary table of Farmers' Association's credit department for verification and analysis. In terms of empirical model, the fixed effect model of individual and time is used to explore the correlation between the 2017 and 2021 Farmers' Association elections in Taipei and New Taipei region and the operation of the farmers' association credit department. The research results show that the coverage ratio in the month of the 2017 election was significantly lower than that in the month before and after the election. In 2021, there is an upward trend from one month before the election to one month after the election, and the overall volatility is relatively large. In terms of capital adequacy ratio, in 2017, the value of the capital adequacy ratio increased slightly from the month before the election to the month of the election, and showed a downward trend one month after the election. In 2021, it will decrease from one month before the election to one month after the election. In terms of the fixed effect regression model, the month of the election and the month before and after the election in 2021 will have a significant negative impact on the non-performing loans ratio.

並列關鍵字

Farmers' Association development, local fractions, efficiency of operations, credit department of Farmers' Associations, fixed effect model

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