工程受災脆弱度評估方法之初步研究-以淹水災害為例

The Assessment of Vulnerability for Hydraulic Infrastructure Subject to Flood Disaster

陳逸菁(Yi-Chin Chen)

指導教授 ： 曾惠斌

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.00530

摘要

近年來由於氣候變遷與全球暖化影響，極端氣候事件發生頻率逐漸增加。台灣地處北半球颱風路徑要衝所在，然而面對洪災所造成的威脅，政府之經費資源有限，故對工程資源配置優先順序之管理是迫切需要的。
首先針對水利署過往工程自民國95年至民國100年之歷史標案進行整體檢視，在不同管理面向與管理重點上進行分析，深入了解水利署及其附屬機關與受補助(代辦)機關在執行工程發包案件時之工程執行狀況與管理情形。並且從歷史工程分析中得出在建工程之決策管理重要項目，進一步制訂工程管理上異常管理之指標與警戒值，提供管理者與決策者在管理上之參考；亦從分析中取得可能合適之脆弱度評估之工程因子。
本研究目的要建立導入工程因子之脆弱度評估模式，採用聯合國對災害風險分析的概念，即風險=危險度×暴露性×脆弱度。用此風險評估模型並針對其中之脆弱度作深入的探討，災害界定以淹水災害為考量。在脆弱度因子方面，透過發放專家問卷，進行因素分析，挑選出十二項工程因子，隨後與環境條件因子一同建立出脆弱度層級架構，再發放專家問卷，運用層級分析法，訂定因子之權重。
脆弱度評估模式確立後，以臺灣河川中流域最廣泛之高屏溪為例，示範脆弱度的計算，而後在繪製脆弱度風險地圖，提供脆弱度應用面之參考。希望藉此脆弱度分析可供相關單位做為管理決策參考，以適度提高地方對淹水災害抵抗能力，減輕淹水災害所帶來的衝擊。

關鍵字

災害風險 ； 脆弱度 ； 脆弱度地圖 ； 工程管理

並列摘要

In recent years, typhoons and severe storms have caused inundation and loss of lives and properties in Taiwan due to the non-uniformly distributed rainfall both in space and in time and the fragile geographic conditions. Since the government funding resources are limited, the priority and resource management is urgently needed.
First of all, in order to understand the project progress of Water Resources Agency and its subsidiary organizations or other subsidized authorities, an overall view of the past projects of Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs analysed by different management-oriented and focus from 2006 to 2011 is necessary. Our reseach also drew the important criteria for the project management or decision-making from the history of project analysis, the exception management indicators and warning value are designed for managers and decision-makers to control and monitor the projects in progress. Furthermore, based on the analysis, some engineering factors of the assessment of vulnerability could be found.
The research purpose is to establish an assessment model for vulnerability including engineering factors. In the disaster risk analysis of the United Nations: Risk =Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability, the Vulnerability is concerned with this assessment of vulnerability in the research, and the disaster definition for the research is inundations. Then, 12 engineering factors of the assessment of vulnerability was founded by delivering the Factor Analysis questionnaires. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) questionnaires for the Prioritizing System of Watershed Management with perspectives and criteria were delivered to the experts from professional engineers, government agencies, and academic scholars to conclude adequate weight function. After the model for vulnerability assessment was established, taking Gapoing River for example, the vulnerability values could be calculated and the vulnerability map could also be established. The analysis would provide reference materials for the government departments concerned to improve the ability to manage flood disaster.

並列關鍵字

hazard risk ； vulnerability ； vulnerability map ； project management

參考文獻

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