本文係以國內某家金融機構,在2002年至2010年間所出售不良債權計5,186筆資料為分析對象,採用兩樣本平均數檢定及變異數分析,以了解銀行出售不良債權回收率差異的影響因素。由實證結果顯示,「出售債權種類」、「借戶現況」、「有無擔保品」、「擔保品(不動產)用途」、「擔保品(不動產)座落」、「借戶聯絡情形」、「逾期帳齡」、「有無保證人」、「擔保品座落地區當地法院法拍情形」、「出售分行之逾放比率」及「出售年度」等11項變數與回收率有顯著相關。 本文進一步透過多元線性迴歸分析,就「出售債權種類」、「有無擔保品」、「借戶聯絡情形」、「逾期帳齡」、「有無保證人」、「出售年度」等6項變數進行檢定。檢定結果顯示,除「有無保證人」對回收率則具有顯著負相關外,其餘五個自變數,對回收率均具有顯著正相關。就影響程度而言,以「有無擔保品」對回收率的影響性最大,次為「出售年度」,再次為「逾期帳齡」,接續為「有無保證人」、「出售債權種類」及「借戶聯絡情形」等三項變數。 以高回收率案件與低回收率案件相較,高回收率案件之個人戶比例較高,企業戶停業比例及個人戶失業比例較低、不動產擔保比例較高、擔保品中住宅區比例較高,農業區比例較低、擔保品座落於北區之比率較高、借戶可聯絡之比例較高、逾期帳齡較短、無保證人案件之比率較高、擔保品當地法院拍定次數較低、高逾放比分行案件較多及出售年度之外在經濟環境較佳。低回收率案件則與前述情形相反。
In this research, we collected 5,186 pieces of data from a bank in Taiwan from 2002 to 2010 and used t-test and Analysis of Variance(ANOVA)to analyze factors influencing the recovery rate of banks by selling NPLs. The results of our anlaysis suggest that the following factors have a significant correlation with the recovery rate : "kind of borrower," "borrower’s situation," "with real-estate collateral," "real-estate collateral use," "real-estate collateral location," "may contact borrower," "over-due aging," "guarantor," "auction status," "NPL Ratio of branch sales," and "year of sale." Analyzing influencing factors by multiple linear regression on "kind of borrower," "with real-estate collateral," "may contact borrower," "over-due aging", "guarantor," and "year of sale", we found that the "guarantor" had a significant negative correlation with the recovery rate while the others had a significant positive correlation with the recovery rate. Moreover, the study showed that the most influential factor was "real-estate collateral," followed by "year of sale," "over-due aging," "guarantor, " "kind of borrower," and "may contact borrower." Compared with the low recovery rate cases, the high recovery rate cases show the following characteristics: a higher proportion of individuals; a lower proportion of unemployment and ceased operation; a higher proportion secured by real estate collateral; a higher proportion of real estate in residential areas and a lower proportion in agricultural areas; a higher proportion of real estate collateral located in northern areas; a higher proportion of may contact borrower; short overdue aging; without guarantor; easier to auction; better economic environment in the year of sale.
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