Title

半總統制下總統權力和國會組成對總理任期之影響

Translated Titles

The Duration of Prime Minister in Semi-Presidentialism: The Effect of Presidential Power and Composition of Parliament

DOI

10.6342/NTU.2012.00729

Authors

李宜芳

Key Words

半總統制 ; 總理任期 ; 總統權力 ; 國會組成 ; 交互作用 ; 事件史分析法 ; Cox風險比例模型 ; Semi-presidentialism ; duration of the prime minister ; presidential power ; composition of parliament ; interaction ; event history analysis ; Cox proportional hazard model

PublicationName

臺灣大學政治學研究所學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2012年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

王業立

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

本文旨在探究影響總理任期的因素為何,過去研究半總統制的總理任期已有相當豐碩的成果,但檢視相關的文獻後,發現仍有一些尚未被研究的部分。首先是總統權力包含不同的面向,且不同的面向的影響效果不一定是獨立的,也就是不同面向的總統權力可能產生交互作用的影響;接著是國會組成與總統權力,因為國會組成可能引發總統介入行政,進而動用憲法賦予總統的權力,所以國會組成與總統權力之間也有可能有相互影響的可能。綜觀過去的研究,僅提及相關的變數,並只針對少數國家進行驗證。本文針對1945年至2010年間,採行半總統制的民主國家進行分析,利用Cox 的風險比例模型估計不同因素對總理下台發生的風險比例,並進一步探討總理下台的不同事件發生的風險比例。 研究結果發現總統權力的不同面向交互作用,以及總統權力和國會組成的交互作用的確會對總理任期長短有顯著性的影響。在不同面向的總統權力部分,發現總統單邊任命權和總統免除權對總理任期有交互作用的影響;在總統權力與國會組成交互作用部份,可以得知聯合政府和總統免除權對總理任期有交互作用的影響;另外,總統總理是否同黨和總統黨席次比對總理任期有交互作用影響;最後,總統總理是否同黨和總理黨席次對總理任期也有交互作用影響。 因此,在探究影響總理任期長短的因素時,不能只著重在單一變數探討,還必須觀察變數之間的交互作用,才能真正得知影響總理任期的因素為何。

English Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the factors which affect the duration of the prime minister. Research of the prime minister duration in semi-presidentialism has been quite fruitful in the past but we will be analyzing this topic by studying how different factors affecting prime minister duration are correlated rather than independent. We will first study how the different aspects of presidential power affect the duration of the prime minister and how their effects are not independent. Next, we will study how different parliament compositions lead to presidential involvement in the administration and thus affects the duration as well. We use the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the different factors that impact the prime minister duration as well as the competing risk model to analyze different events. The range of time used is from 1945 to 2010 and includes democratic semi-presidentialism countries from around the world. The research shows that different aspects of president power have interactive effects and that parliament composition and presidential power also have interactive effect. First, in the different aspect of presidential power section, there are significant interactive effects of the president power to dismiss prime minister and the president power to unilateral appoint prime minister. Second, there are significant interactive effects of coalition government and the president power to dismiss prime minister. Furthermore, there are significant interactive effects of whether the president and the prime minister are of the same party and the proportion of president party seats. At last, there are significant interactive effects of whether the president and the prime minister are of the same party and the proportion of prime minister party seats. In summary, to explore the factors of the prime minister duration, it is necessary not only to focus on the impact of individual variables, but also take the interaction of different variables into account.

Topic Category 社會科學院 > 政治學研究所
社會科學 > 政治學
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