政府近年來打房動作不斷,使得眾多研究深入探討房價與台灣總體經濟的影響關係。本文應用統計迴歸、時間序列的方法來建構台灣總體計量模型,模型內共有75條方程式,包含有44條結構方程式與31條定義式。我們利用靜態評估來檢驗模型的預測能力,並比較樣本內預測中的預測值與實際值,據此強化此總體經濟模型之可信度。文末,我們以房貸利率及股價變動做情境模擬分析,得知房貸利率下跌與加權股價指數升高皆對實質經濟變數有正面的影響,進而活絡國內經濟及推升台幣,同時房價上升的確會造成執政當局以提高利率及增加課稅等動作回應。而房價與股價具正向之相互影響關係的結果,支持了大部份學者之研究。
The heavy measures recently to enhance the soundness of the housing market trigger the imperative to study the relationship between housing prices and macroeconomy. This paper applies statistical regression, time series methods to construct Taiwan’s macroeconometric model, which has 75 equations and 99 variables, and also includes 44 structural equations and 31 definition formulas. We use static forecast and compare in-the-sample forecast outcome to verify model’s forecastability and trustworthiness. Two scenarios analysis, including the fluctuation from housing loan interest rates and stock price, are considered. It can be inferred that both the decline of interest rates and the increase of stock price have positive effects on real variables. This situation will ignite thriving economy and appreciation in NTD. The results also indicate that the government reacts to increasing housing prices by imposing higher taxes and raising interest rates. The positive relationship between housing and stock prices reconfirm the results in other literature.
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