台灣離岸風場下部結構工期排程受天候影響之研究

Study on the Weather Impact of Construction Schedule of Taiwan Offshore Wind Farm Foundations

莊坤諺(Kun-Yen Chuang)

指導教授 ： 郭斯傑

共同指導教授 ： 曾惠斌(Hui-Ping Tserng)

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202000864

摘要

台灣地區天然資源蘊藏不豐，自產能源缺乏，百分之九十八以上之能源供給來源仰賴進口，化石能源進口依存度高，因此如何降低依賴進口能源，積極開發本土自產能源，為攸關國家發展、能源安全、環境永續、綠色經濟及社會公平等均衡發展之關鍵課題。近年來環保意識提昇，綠色能源、永續發展等議題受到高度重視，抑制溫室氣體之排放，再生能源之有效利用等議題，儼然已成為世界各國關注焦點。
台灣為一地處西太平洋之海島型國家，全年年平均風速超過每秒4公尺以上，風能蘊藏相當豐富，且風力發電具備低環境汙染、低發電成本及永續發展等優點，爰此，我國政府為達成2025非核家園的願景，將在台灣沿岸積極開發推動建置風力發電機組興建工程。惟陸域風電發展因受限用地取得及環保議題，目前已遭遇高度挑戰且日趨飽和，故規劃轉往海上離岸區域開發推動風電計畫，以達需求目標。台灣目前尚屬離岸風電發展初期階段，並無大量施工安裝的經驗。本研究將透過國外已發展多年的八十六個離岸風場及台灣目前剛完工的二個示範風場施工經驗，預估台灣離岸風場下部結構型式以及下部結構安裝工期排程。
本研究以海龍二號風場為例，導入台灣海峽2006年〜2018年歷史海象資料，推論出台灣海峽2019年〜2024年可工作天候窗(Available Weather Window)。且透過專家訪談、文獻回顧以及PERT分析排程輔助系統等方式，推論出台灣海峽2006年〜2024年需求工作窗(Required Working Window)。並在可工作天候窗(Available Weather Window)及需求工作窗(Required Working Window)間相互考量單趟出航安裝策略工期下，以PERT分析法合理推論出在天候影響下一年可安裝完成風機下部結構的數量，並建議最適合台灣離岸風場下部結構安裝之工期排程以供離岸風電工程規劃人員參酌，期能提供排程人員更具科學性、系統性及邏輯性的思維模式，進而順利推展工進俾利減少延誤及降低工程風險。

關鍵字

排程規劃 ； 天候影響 ； 風力發電機組 ； 離岸風場下部結構安裝 ； 可工作天候窗 ； 需求工作窗

並列摘要

Taiwan lacks abundant natural resources and self-produced energy sources. We rely on imports for more than 98% of our energy-providing sources with a high reliance on imported fossil fuel. Therefore, how to decrease our dependence on imported energy sources and actively develop local self-produced energy sources, have become the key issues to national development, energy safety, environmental sustainability, green economy, and a balanced development of social justice. With the rising of environmental awareness and the increasing attention to issues such as green energy and sustainable development, issues regarding the suppression of greenhouse gas emission and the effective use of renewable energy have become the focus of nations around the world.
Taiwan is an island country located in the west Pacific with abundant wind power reserves. We have an average annual wind speed of more than 4 m/s. Wind power is low in pollution and cost, with the advantage of sustainable development. Hence, the government will be actively developing and promoting the construction of wind turbine units along coastal areas in order to achieve the vision of a non-nuclear home by the year 2025. However, the development of onshore wind power is restricted by the acquiring of land and the issue of environmental protection, is therefore highly challenging and gradually reaching saturation point. In order to achieve the goal, we have planned to turn to offshore areas to develop offshore wind power projects. At the moment, Taiwan is still in the initial stage of developing offshore wind power without a great amount of experience in construction and installation. This study makes reference to the construction experience of the 86 offshore wind farms that have been developing for many years overseas, as well as the 2 newly completed model wind farms in Taiwan, to predict the type of Taiwan offshore wind farm foundations and the weather impact of construction schedule of Taiwan offshore wind farm foundations.
This study takes the example of Hai Long offshore wind farm with the historical walrus data of Taiwan Strait between the years 2006 and 2018 to predict the Available Weather Window in the Taiwan Strait between the years 2019 and 2024. Through expert interviews, literature review, and PERT analysis scheduling assistance system, the Required Working Window in the Taiwan Strait between 2006 and 2024 could be predicted. With the consideration of the Available Weather Window and the Required Working Window, in terms of construction period for a single-sail installation strategy, we are able to use PERT analysis to logically predict the number of wind farm foundations that could be installed within a year under weather impact, as well as making recommendations for the most suitable construction schedules of Taiwan offshore wind farm foundations. This will provide offshore wind power construction project planners with reference, hoping to provide project planners with a more scientific, systematic, and logical method of thinking to improve schedule planning and decrease delay and project risks.

並列關鍵字

Schedule forecasting ； Weather impact ； Wind turbine unit ； Offshore wind farm foundations construction ； Available Weather Window ； Required Working Window

參考文獻

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