工廠成長動因:台灣製造業的實證

Factors of Plant Growth: Evidence from the Taiwan Manufacturing Sector

林承勳(Cherng-Shiun Lin)

指導教授 ： 劉錦添

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.02728

摘要

過去有關廠商動態成長的實證研究與相伴而生的吉布列法則的檢驗，其結論頗為分歧。有鑑於此，我們採用後設分析，亦即以統計方法進行文獻歸納與回顧，試圖尋找足以左右吉布列法則檢驗結果的重要樣本或研究特性。接著，透過1998年至2003年台灣製造業工廠的資料，我們分別以普通最小平方估計式與隨機效果估計式進行成長因素的迴歸分析。除了工廠規模、工廠年齡與其它工廠特性等傳統解釋變數，本文亦包含許多關於工廠員工特性的重要變數。結果顯示，工廠規模(以員工數作為衡量)的成長率隨著期初工廠規模與工廠年齡的增加而下降，但下降幅度亦隨其規模與年齡的增加而遞減。相反地，勞動生產力與資本密集度皆與成長率呈現顯著正向相關，許多員工特性亦為解釋工廠成長不可或缺的因素。我們進而對個別產業做隨機效果迴歸分析，並且對一個延伸至2005年的樣本做檢驗，結果指出上述結論具有相當的穩定度。

關鍵字

工廠成長 ； 吉布列法則 ； 後設分析 ； 台灣製造業 ； 隨機效果估計式 ； 員工特性

並列摘要

Research into the growth dynamics of firms and the accompanying tests of Gibrat's Law have had only limited consensus. Given that past results have been divergent, we perform a meta analysis and seek to summarize the large empirical literature written on this particular theme. Statistically, certain sample and research characteristics are found to play guiding roles in determining whether or not to reject Gibrat's Law. Next, by using a sample of more than 32 thousand manufacturing plants in Taiwan between 1998 and 2003, we conduct OLS and random effects regressions to examine the relationships between the employment growth of plants and various factors pertaining to characteristics of the plants and their workers. The results suggest that employment growth decreases at diminishing rates with both plant size and plant age, so that Gibrat's Law must be rejected while Jovanovic's theory of firm growth holds. Labor productivity and capital intensity, on the other hand, are positively related to employment growth. We also find several worker characteristics to be indispensible for explaining growth of plants. Additional checks that look at each separate industry one at a time or an extended balanced panel of all plants up to the year 2005 show that the main results are quite robust.

並列關鍵字

Plant growth ； Meta analysis ； Taiwan manufacturing sector ； Random effects estimator ； Worker characteristics

參考文獻

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