預測市場運用與實證-以2014台灣縣市長選舉預測為例

The Application and Empirical Studies of Prediction Markets:A Case Study of the 2014 Taiwan Magistrate and Mayoral Elections

洪耀南(yao-nan Hung)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.02315

摘要

雖然民意調查是目前預測選舉結果常見的方法之一,但近年來預 測市場逐漸成為另一種的預測機制,並有許多文獻比較預測市場與民 意調查兩者的準確度。
本論文根據未來事件交易所的交易資料和本研究彙整的民調資料, 分析預測市場對台灣 2014 年縣市長選舉預測結果,並對比預測市場 和民調機構對於此次選舉的預測。
本研究發現:對當選人預測合約,預測市場的加權平均價格對當 選比率在統計上有顯著正向影響,並且在統計上相當程度可表示為候 選人當選之機率。再者,根據正確率、精準率等指標,預測市場對當 選人預測的能力均高於民調機構。對得票率的預測,預測市場的預測 能力在選前28天或選前10天皆高過民調機構,而且預測市場的預測準 確度會隨著合約到期日的接近而逐漸增加。

不過,本研究也認為民意調查的優點在於可以協助研究者進行變 項的相關分析,民調資料資訊均會影響預測市場,故二者同時運用相 互增強功能。

關鍵字

預測市場 ； 民意調查 ； 準確度 ； 縣市長選舉

並列摘要

Opinion poll has been the most widely used way to conduct election prediction. However, recently prediction market has become another important prediction mechanism, attracting the literature to compare the accuracy of the two prediction methods. According to trading data of the Exchange of Future Events and opinion polls collected by this study, this paper analyzes the prediction results of the 2014 magistrate and mayoral election in Taiwan, and compares the prediction accuracies on this election between prediction markets and poll institutions. For prediction contracts on election winners, the weighted average prices of prediction markets are positive and statistically significant on the ratio of winning elections and can be regarded as the candidates' probability of winning elections.
In addition, based on indicators of correctness rate, precision rate, hit rate, false alarm rate and Kuipers score, predictive power of prediction markets on election winners is obviously higher than that of poll institutions.
For prediction on vote shares, predictive power of prediction markets is higher than that of poll institutions within 28 days before the election, and prediction accuracy of prediction markets is getting higher along with approaching the expiration of the contracts. Nevertheless, we also agree that opinion survey can help researchers conduct covariance analysis, which can be both used to reinforce the findings of prediction market and opinion survey.

並列關鍵字

Prediction market ； Opinion poll ； Accuracy ； Magistrate and Mayoral Election.

參考文獻

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