簽帳行為與台灣家計儲蓄之實證研究

Credit Card, Payment Behavior and Household Saving:An Empirical Study for Taiwan.

連慧玲(Hui-Ling Lien)

指導教授 ： 毛慶生

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201901868

摘要

近年來，金融科技（FinTech）在全球獲得高度關注，而FinTech「無現金世界」與「新興支付」兩大創新項目，與民眾信用卡的消費、行動支付與第三方支付息息相關。
台灣面臨高齡社會，不僅影響各項年金的基金運用餘額，同時也會對職場勞動人力結構造成衝擊，並對未來社會、產業、財務造成影響，而人口結構的改變也使勞保年金制度將面臨虧損甚至破產的情況，特別的是為了因應台灣人口結構的改變，許多社會保險開始面臨改制。
本研究以1991-2017年資料為樣本，利用EViews軟體來進行估計分析，主要使用最小平方迴歸估計方程式，研究的主要目的是探討信用卡流通卡數與簽帳金額對於家庭儲蓄率的影響，除此之外，本研究還探討了人口結構、所得來源與儲蓄率之間的關聯。實證結論有下列發現：
1. 家庭儲蓄率受信用卡流通卡數影響比受簽帳金額影響還要顯著；
2. 信用卡流通卡數對家庭儲蓄率有顯著負相關；
3. 可支配所得年增率使儲蓄率呈現上升；
4. 移轉收入對家庭儲蓄率有顯著負相關；
5. 高齡化程度對家庭儲蓄率有顯著正相關。

關鍵字

信用卡 ； 家庭儲蓄率 ； 可支配所得 ； 移轉收入 ； 高齡化

並列摘要

In recent years, FinTech has gained much attention around the world, and two innovation projects of FinTech, “Cashless World” and “Emerging Payments” are closely related to credit card spending, mobile payment and third-party payment.
Now Taiwan faces an aging society, which not only affects the balance of fund utilization of various annuities, but also impacts on the labor force structure of the workplace, and affects the future society, industry, and finance. The change in population structure also causes the labor insurance annuity system to face losses. Even in the case of bankruptcy, in particular, in response to changes in Taiwan’s demographic structure, many social insurances began to face restructuring.
This study uses the 1991-2017 data as a sample, using EViews software for estimation analysis, mainly using least squares regression to estimate equations. The main purpose of the study is to explore the impact of credit card circulation cards and the amount spending on the household savings rate. In addition, the study explores the relationship between demographic structure, sources of income, and savings rates. The empirical findings have the following findings:
1. The household savings rate is more affected by the number of credit cards than the amount spending;
2. The number of credit card circulation cards has a significant negative correlation with the household savings rate;
3. The annual rate of increase in disposable income has led to an increase in the savings rate;
4. Transfer income has a significant negative correlation with household savings rates;
5. The degree of aging has a significant positive correlation with household savings rates.

並列關鍵字

credit card ； household savings rate ； disposable income ； transfer income ； aging

參考文獻

壹、 中文

中華民國內政部戶政司全球資訊網，人口統計資料。

中華民國統計資訊網，總體經濟資料庫。

毛慶生（2014）。總體經濟學：古典新論(一)。臺北市：雙葉書廊。

行政院主計總處，中華民國統計資訊網，家庭收支調查。