「自主提升」與「偏好分歧」：國家中心論視角下馬政府兩岸政策之研究(2008.5~2016.1)

“Autonomy Enhancing” and “Preference Divergence”: Analysis of Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Policy in the Period of Ma, Ying-Jeou’s Government by State-Centrism (2008.5~2016.1)

束沐(Mu Shu)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

共同指導教授 ： 周繼祥(Ji-Hsiang Chou)

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201600271

摘要

如何評價馬政府執政八年來的兩岸政策？此乃本文的現實背景。在推動公共政策過程中，政府行為會對民意產生什麼影響？反過來，民意又如何影響政府的既有公共政策議程？此乃本文的理論背景。上述問題意識，引領本文作者從國家自主性的理論脈絡出發，依次對國家能力、國家偏好、Nordlinger的民主國家自主性理論、Mann的國家權力理論與發展型國家模式等學術概念與理論展開綜述與檢討，結合現有的兩岸關係研究、近來以泛社會中心主義為主的馬政府兩岸政策分析與評論，重新審視了當國家維護與提升其自主性時，國家能力在國家調節分歧性社會偏好中的作用，進而提出研究假設與架構。遂提出，當國家與社會偏好之間就某一公共政策或公共議題出現分歧時，國家憑藉其國家能力所做出的自主行為，對國家與社會之間偏好的分歧程度具有影響。在國家能力中，專制能力的社會隔離性較強、滲透性較弱，基礎能力的社會滲透性較強、隔離性較弱。2008年執政以來，當馬政府傾向於運用基礎能力提升其在兩岸政策領域的自主性時，一些自主嘗試獲得了成功，也一度調和了分歧性偏好，當馬政府傾向於運用專制能力提升其在兩岸政策領域的自主性時，一些自主嘗試遭到了失敗，並且擴大了分歧性偏好。
通過對比較歷史分析法與分析歸納法的綜合運用，本文回顧了馬政府執政八年來有關兩岸政策的十五個具有代表性的歷史過程/事件，從馬政府維護與提升國家內部或外部自主性的維度、馬政府所運用的國家能力類型、馬英九執政時期兩岸政策上的國家偏好與社會偏好之間的分歧程度，這三個角度進行梳理與分析，最終驗證了本文的研究假設。同時，本文還發現，由於兩岸政策的特殊性，在北京對台政策的「類鑲嵌」壓力與台灣自身政治經濟體制的轉型壓力之下，馬政府處理兩岸關係的國家能力尤其是基礎能力被弱化，故馬政府更加傾向於運用專制能力，來推動一些存在偏好分歧的兩岸政策，儘管一部分政策達到了既定目標，但國家-社會偏好分歧逐漸擴大，並藉由反服貿學運激化、失控，最終引發了社會制裁。
本文結合實證研究發現，用國家能力理論重構了民主國家自主性理論。本文認為，專制能力與基礎能力，是衡量國家能力的社會隔離性與滲透性的重要指標，並且隨著社會隔離性/滲透性的變化，國家偏好與社會偏好之間的分歧程度也隨之發生改變。國家能力運用類型對偏好分歧的影響過程，本文以「民主國家自主性解釋新模式之一」的形式表現出來。不僅如此，專制能力與基礎能力的強弱，也是劃分現代國家體制的重要指標。民主體制與威權體制中，政府均擁有不同形式的專制能力與基礎能力，但因其相對強弱程度的不同，可具體劃分為八種政體。其中，在四種民主政體中，社會反對者所佔資源的比例對國家自主努力與成功概率的影響，本文以「民主國家自主性解釋新模式之二」的形式表現出來。
最後，根據研究過程中所積累的正反面經驗，本文作者總結出本研究的六點正面意義與五點不足，在這一基礎上提出後續研究建議，並對台灣民意對兩岸關係的立場與態度用「求穩勝於求進，求名甚於求實」十二個字來概括其特徵，作為本研究的政策建議。

關鍵字

國家自主性 ； 國家能力 ； 偏好分歧 ； 兩岸政策 ； 專制能力 ； 基礎能力

並列摘要

How to evaluate the Cross-Strait policy of Ma, Ying-jeou’s government in recent eight years? It is the realistic background of this thesis. How does government behavior influence public opinion in the process of public policy, and in turn, how does public opinion influence the government’s existing policy process? It is the theoretical background of this thesis. Questions above have led me to depart form the theoretical context of State Autonomy to the review of relevant academic concepts and theories including State Capacity, State and Social Preference, Eric Nordlinger’s theory on the Autonomy of Democratic State, Micheal Mann’s theory of State Power. Next, in the consideration of the existing research of the Cross-Strait relations and recent comments and analyses of Ma, Ying-jeou government’s Cross-Strait policy by Social-Centrism, the thesis explored the role of state capacity in the process that state adjusts divergent social preference when state makes attempt to maintain or enhance its autonomy. Then I proposed the research hypotheses and framework of this thesis: When there is some divergence between the state and social preferences towards a given policy or a given public issue, state’s autonomous behaviors by its capacity make impacts on the degree of the divergence between the state preference and social preference. Referring to state capacity, the Despotic Capacity has high degree of social isolation and low degree of social penetration, while the Infrastructural Capacity has high degree of social penetration and low degree of social isolation. Since the year of 2008, some of autonomous attempt of Ma’s Government succeeded and once successfully adjusted some divergent social preference, when Ma’s Government tended to adopt the infrastructural capacity to maintain or enhance its autonomy in the process of the Cross-Strait policy. While other autonomous attempt failed and expanded the preference divergence, when Ma’s Government tended to adopt the despotic capacity to maintain or enhance its autonomy in the process of the Cross-Strait policy.
Through historical research approach, the thesis looked back on fifteen typical historic event of the Cross-Strait relations in eight years of Ma’s Government in power. The thesis reviewed and analyzed these events by three views. The first is dimensions of the internal or external state autonomy that Ma’s Government maintained or enhanced. The second is categories of the state capacity that Ma’s Government adopted, and the third is the degree of divergence between the state and social preferences towards the Cross-Strait policy of Ma’s Government. Finally the research hypotheses are verified. Meanwhile, the thesis also discovered that, because of the particularity of the Cross-Strait relations, forced by the dual pressure of the “quasi-embeddedness” from Beijing’s Taiwan policy and the transformation of Taiwan’s political and economic systems, the state capacity, specially in infrastructural capacity of Ma’s Government in the field of the Cross-Strait policy, is weakened. Thus Ma’s Government tended to adopt the despotic capacity to promote some Cross-Strait policy with preference divergence in order to maintain or enhance its autonomy. Then the degree of state-society preference divergence was gradually expanded, proliferated, intensified and out of control by the Sunflower Movement, and led to the social sanction in the end.
Combined with the findings of empirical study, the thesis reconstructed the theory on the Autonomy of Democratic State by the theory of State Capacity. The thesis contends that despotic capacity and infrastructural capacity are important standards to measure the degree of social penetration and isolation of state capacity. As the degree of social penetration or isolation of state capacity changes, the degree of the divergence between state preference and social preference changes. The thesis proposes the “New Mode One of the Autonomy of Democratic State” to describe the process that how state capacity influence the preference divergence. Moreover, the strength or weakness of despotic capacity and infrastructural capacity is the important standard to categorize regimes of modern states. In the light of the strength or weakness of despotic capacity and infrastructural capacity, there are eight different categories in democratic and authoritarian regimes. Among four categories of democratic regimes, the “New Mode Two of the Autonomy of Democratic State” describes the relations between the proportion that anti-governmental social actors possess and the probability of the attempt and success of state autonomous behavior.
According to positive and negative experience during the research process of the thesis, I concluded six pieces of significance and five pieces of shortcomings, and proposed three pieces of research advice in the future on the basis of above significance and shortcomings. At last, as the policy advice, the thesis generalized the attitude of Taiwan’s public opinion towards the Cross-Strait relations in one sentence.

並列關鍵字

State Autonomy ； State Capacity ； Preference Divergence ； the Cross-Strait Policy ； the Despotic Capacity ； the Infrastructural Capacity

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