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  • 學位論文

結合彩色派翠網路與複合多評準決策分析探討城際列車車型評選之研究–以臺鐵東部城際列車為例

Combining Color-Petri Net and Hybrid MCDM Analysis for Selecting Inter-city Train Types - Using TRA East Inter-city Train as Case Study

指導教授 : 許超澤
共同指導教授 : 杜微(Wei Tu)

摘要


在全球環保意識興起下,發展軌道運輸已成為各國運輸部門之政策主軸。由於政府投資經費有限,當鐵路機構在選購列車時,如何建立一套完整客觀的列車評選模型,實有研究之必要性。傳統有關方案評選研究大多利用多評準決策或成本效益分析進行評估,由於兩種評估方式各有利弊,後續學者試圖將兩種方法相互結合,但評估模型較為複雜且難以理解。因此本研究提出一個結合彩色派翠網路與複合多評準決策方法,建立列車車型評選策略之系統化模型,提供決策者更清楚了解決策的分析過程,並以臺鐵東部城際列車評選作為實證研究對象。 本研究首先應用複合多評準決策方法,透過決策實驗室分析法之網路程序分析法,評估城際列車於利益、機會、成本、風險構面下各準則關聯程度與相對權重,並以折衷排序法評估方案偏好結果與理想程度,評選出最具效益之列車方案。其次,本研究建構彩色派翠網路評估模型,將列車成本貨幣化,結合複合多評準決策之方案整體效益進行成本效益分析,探討列車成本效益之未來變化趨勢,評選出最具投資性之列車方案,最後透過專家訪談方式探究兩種分析結果之差異及原因。 研究結果顯示,提升利益與減少成本為評選列車之主要考量,首先必須考量列車是否能帶來很好的營運及維修能量、靈活性及服務品質,其中以提升列車「營運及維修能量」最為重要;而列車的投入成本則是最容易影響其他項目,其中以列車「購置成本」影響最大。然而,「傾斜式列車」成本較效益來的高,不僅無法達到投資門檻,隨著列車最低使用年限,未來將投入更多成本;相較之下,「推拉式列車」效益較成本來得高,且未來投入成本較低,成為最具投資性之列車方案。故針對未來列車評選策略,必須審慎考量列車所需的投入成本,以及列車對於鐵路機構所造成的負擔。

並列摘要


The rise of global environmental awareness, rail transport has become the development goals in all countries transportation sector, due to the government's investment costs are limited, when the railway agencies purchase trains, how to establish a complete and objective train selection model, it is necessary to study. Traditionally, the program selection studies are evaluated by Multiple-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) or cost-benefit analysis (CBA), due to both methods have advantages and disadvantages, after, some scholars tried to combine the two methods, however, these models are more complicated and difficult to understand, so we propose a systematic model that combining CPN with hybrid MCDM to establish the selection strategy of train types, it can make decision-makers understand the analysis process clearly, and taking the selecting inter-city train types in the Eastern Line of TRA as an empirical study object. This study first applied hybrid MCDM, using DANP method to evaluate the rankings and weights in dimensions of benefits, opportunities, costs and risks, and VIKOR method to evaluate performance and the ideal level to select the most effective train program. Second, this study established a CPN model, the train cost will be assessed in monetary terms, after, the cost and benefits will be combined for CBA, we can understand the cost changes of the train, as well as the cost-benefit trend in the future, selecting the most investment train program, finally, through expert interviews to explore the differences between the analysis results and the reasons. The results show that enhance benefits and reduce costs are major considerations in the selection of trains, first, we must consider whether the train can bring good operation and maintenance energy, flexibility and service quality, of which the most important is to upgrade the "operation and maintenance energy", and the cost of the train is most likely to affect other items, of which the "purchase cost" is the most impact. However, the cost of " Tilting Trains" is higher than the benefits. it will not be able to meet the investment threshold, with the train minimum service life, it will put more costs. In contrast, the benefits of "push-pull trains" are higher than the cost and lower costs in the future, it can become the most investment train program. In view of the train selection strategy in the future, we must carefully consider the train cost, as well as the burden of trains on railway agency.

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