- 學位論文
修正型乾旱延時曲線之研究及其應用－以南部地區為例
A Study on Modified Drought Duration Curves and Its Applications in the Southern Areas of Taiwan
摘要
本文之研究目的係探討降雨發生短缺而造成區域性之氣象水文乾旱現象。首先，本文採用乾旱延時曲線(Drought Duration Curves, DDC)之概念，藉以推求不同日數下移動平均降雨量之重現期距。研究中，導入線性動差、適合度判定及頻率分析等方法，進一步提出修正型乾旱延時曲線(Modified Drought Duration Curves, MDDC)之方法，並利用DDC之最適機率分布推求其特定之重現期距，以改善傳統DDC僅以點繪公式進行重現期距推估上之不足。 本文為進一步驗證MDDC於區域乾旱研判上之適用性，乃選定南部地區為本文之研究區域，利用區域內44個雨量測站之歷史日雨量紀錄資料，分別推求不同重現期距之DDC與MDDC並繪製比較之，同時挑選六場乾旱事件做為上述方法之驗證與應用。研究中，進一步利用不同m日之最小移動平均雨量結合克利金法繪製雨量等值圖以探求南部地區之乾旱時、空間特性，此外，亦採用算術平均數法推求區域平均之DDC與MDDC，用以呈現南部地區之乾旱整體性。 由研究結果顯示，MDDC確實可改善傳統DDC推估重現期距上之不足，同時藉由MDDC搭配使用克利金法，更有助於乾旱空間分布與特性之研析。因此，本方法未來可進一步發展，以做為長期水文情勢研判與乾旱預警上之參考與應用。
並列摘要
This study aims to investigate meteorological hydrology drought resulted from a shortage of rainfalls. First of all, the modified drought duration curves (MDDC) are proposed by using several methods, such as L-Moments and goodness-of-fit measures and frequency analysis, to fit the probability distributions of the drought duration curves (DDC) which are used to estimate return periods of moving average rainfalls in different days in this study. In MDDC, the return periods of DDC can be calculated through their probability distributions, and the drawback of DDC, only using plotting position to estimate the return periods, can be improved. In order to test the ability of MDDC in regional drought detection further, the southern region of Taiwan was chosen as a study area and different return periods of DDC and MDDC of the project area were calculated and charted by using daily rainfall records of 44 gauging stations, and there were six drought events used to test the application of this idea. In this study, MDDC combined with the method of Kriging to draw rainfall equivalent pictures can grope for the characteristics of drought in the southern areas further. In order to present entirety of drought in the southern areas, DDC and MDDC of region average can be estimated by using arithmetic average rate of return. From the researching results, MDDC can actually improve the shortage of estimating return periods of traditional DDC, and combining MDDC with the Kriging approach is more useful for studying the spatial characteristics of drought events. Therefore, this method is worth as an advance study for detection of long-term hydrological situation and drought warning.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
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