極端暴雨情境模擬方法之研究及其洪水量之推估

A Study on the Estimation Methods of Extreme Rainfall for Different Scenario Simulations and their Flood Discharge Estimation

李禧年(JUBI LEE)

指導教授 ： 虞國興

淡江大學/工學院/水資源及環境工程學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2007.00576

摘要

民國85年賀伯颱風在阿里山地區連續24小時之降雨量高達1748.5公厘，同時在台北市之板和及社子地區造成嚴重水患，其中，板和地區之淹水面積達700平方公頃，平均淹水深度超過1公尺，淹水最深處甚至達3公尺。若賀伯颱風暴雨發生中心之降雨量直接下在台北都會區，其災情之嚴重恐不堪設想。
本文之研究目的係探討當極端暴雨事件發生於都會區時，推估其洪峰流量以作為後續防救災演練之參考。在推估極端暴雨之降雨深度時，分別採用：世界氣象組織（WMO）統計法、暴雨移置與露點調整法及平均重現期距雨量因子法，分別推求當基隆河流域五堵上游集水區，員山子分洪前之火燒寮站與分洪後之五堵站，分別發生極端暴雨時之雨量，進一步將極端暴雨量套配設計雨型，最後再搭配地貌型瞬時單位歷線模式，以推估因發生極端暴雨事件而產生之洪峰流量。
由本研究情境模擬結果顯示，當賀伯颱風實際發生暴雨中心由阿里山站採用暴雨移置與露點調整法移置到竹子湖站時，基隆河流域五堵上游集水區之洪峰流量為8250cms，為本研究之「最嚴重事件」。

關鍵字

世界氣象組織（WMO）統計法 ； 暴雨移置與露點調整法 ； 平均重現期距雨量因子法 ； 地貌型瞬時單位歷線 ； 最嚴重事件

並列摘要

Herb typhoon was up to 1748.5 millimeters in the 24hr duration rainfall in the area of Alishan in the 85th year of the Republic of China, cause the serious flood in Ban-Ciao, Yong-He and She-Zi sub area of society of Taipei at the same time , among them, flooding water area and is up to square 700 hectare of Ban-Ciao and Yong-He , it exceeds 1 meter flood water depth equally, it is most even up to 3 meters in the depths to flood water. If the storm of the center happens and put in the knowing area of Taipei directly in typhoon of Herb, it is too ghastly to contemplate that its disaster intimidates seriously.
The study probe into at when extreme rainfall happenning incident research purpose department on city, estimate its flow of flood crest to defend and provide disaster relief the reference carried on the exercise of in follow-up ; While estimating the the depth of extreme rainfall , use separately: World Meteological Organization (WMO) statistic method, storm transposition and dew point adjustment method and average recurrence interval rainfall depth factor method, inquire into and act as river valley wutu the upper reaches of Keelung and collect in the water area separately, wutu station with flood-diversion stands in the Huo-Shao-Liao station before Yuan-Shan-Tzu flood-diversion, the depth when the extreme rainfall happens separately, step forward and mix the set of design hyetograph by extreme rainfall ,finally,mix geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph afterwards, in order to estimate the flow of flood crest produced cause by extreme rainfall incident .
Shown by the result of scenario simulations of study, when Herb typhoon takes place storm center use the storm transposition and dew point adjus method to transpose to Chu-Tzu-Wu from Alishan actually, it is 8250cms , and 'the worst case' of this research to collect the flow of flood crest of water district in wutu of the upper reaches of Keelung river valley.

並列關鍵字

World Meteological Organization (WMO) statistic method ； Storm Transposition ； Average Recurrence Interval ； Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph ； Worst Case

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