情緒指標對投資績效的影響

The Effect of Sentiment Indexes to Investment Performance

董柏均(Pu-Chin Tung)

指導教授 ： 倪衍森

淡江大學/商管學院/管理科學學系碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.01152

摘要

近年來投資人情緒反應對股市所造成的影響逐漸成為眾人所關心的課題，然而，大部份的投資者都無法利用情緒指數來使投資績效為有利可圖，所以本研究主要目的是讓投資者利用情緒指數來判斷何時進行投資時機比較有利。
而研究結果顯示:當投資人在VIX處於低檔時做長期投資，在VIX處於高檔時做短期投資；在賣買權比率處於高檔時做長期投資；投資人在券資比比率處於高檔時做長期投資，特別是在短期內投資人可能獲利的機會高出許多。這些結果顛覆了許多投資者的想像，也幫助了投資者利用情緒指數使投資績效更加有利可圖。

關鍵字

VIX指數 ； 賣買權比 ； 券資比

並列摘要

Recently, market participants are interested in the impact on the stock market resulting from investors’ sentiments gradually, but it seems that most investors are unable to make profit by using the indicators of investors’sentiments. In this study, we not only explore whether investors are able to make profits by using the investors’ sentiments, but also endeavor to exploit the favorable investment opportunities in accordance with the indicators of investors’ sentiments. Then we reveal several important findings as shown below.
First, we reveal that investors had better to implement the long-term investment as the VIX index located at the low level measured by RSI technical indicators; but investors might carry out the short-term investment as the VIX index at the high level. Second, the long-term investments would be recommended as the put-call ratio located at the high level. Third, when the ratio, short-selling over margin is located at the high level, the probability of make profit would be enhanced for the short-term investment. These results revealed are rather impressive for investors, which would enhance the profitability for investing in accordance with investors’ sentiments.

並列關鍵字

VIX index ； Put-call Ratio ； Short selling Margin

參考文獻

Chen, D. H., Chen, C. D., & Lai, C. M. (2012). The impacts of opening margin trading on stock return, volatility and turnover rate in Taiwan. Journal of Economics and Management, 3(1), 97-124.

Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.

Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.

Bandopadhyaya, A., & Jones, A. L. (2006). Measuring investor sentiment in equity markets. Journal of Asset Management, 7(3), 208-215.

Bandopadhyaya, A., & Jones, A. L. (2011). Measures of investor sentiment: A comparative analysis put-call ratio vs. volatility Index. Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER), 6(8).