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  • 學位論文

中小學師資需求量推估之研究---以桃園縣國民中小學為例

The Research on Evaluation of Teachers’ demand at High School and Elementary School---Take High School and Elementary School in Toyuan County for Example

指導教授 : 李然堯

摘要


本研究旨在瞭解桃園縣國民中小學師資人力需求,並探討影響桃園縣國民中小學師資需求之因素以建立研究推估模式,透過文獻探討、廻歸統計分析及逐年推估等方法,來推估桃園縣未來六年國民中小學師資需求情形,經過資料的整理及統計分析,獲得以下具體的結論: 壹、93-99學年度桃園縣地區國民中小學生總人數,國小的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而降低;國中的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,直到99學年度才開始有降低的趨勢。國小學生數推估最高者為95學年度179,587人,推估最低者為99學年度169,679人;國中學生數推估最高者為98學年度92,347人,推估最低者為93學年度86,859人。 貳、93-99學年度桃園縣各鄉鎮市區國民小學之班級數,國小的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,96學年度起開始降低;國中的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,直到99學年度才開始有降低的趨勢。國小班級數推估最高者為95學年度5,689班,推估最低者為99學年度5,405班;國中班級數推估最高者為98學年度2,737班,推估最低者為93學年度2,380班。 參、93-99學年度桃園縣地區國民中小學教師需求推估總人數,國小部分:除95學年度有回升之外,其他皆隨著時間增加而降低的趨勢;國中部分:則隨著時間增加而增加,到99學年度才開始降低。國民小學教師需求總數推估最高者為95學年度8,904人,推估最低者為99學年度8,458人;國中教師需求總數推估最高者為98學年度5,685人,推估最低者為93學年度4,957人。

並列摘要


This research aims to clarify the demand of Taoyuan elementary and middle school teachers and explore the factors that contribute to the demand so as to establish the deductive and evaluative model of research. In other words, this research, by means of documentary studies, statistic analysis on return, and yearly deduction and evaluation, is to predict the demand of Taoyuan elementary and middle school teachers. Based on the documents and analyses, the conclusions are as follows. First,Concerning the total number of elementary and middle school students in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of students in elementary school decreases as time goes on, whereas the total number of students in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of students in elementary school is 179,587 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 169,679 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 92,347 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 86,859 and falls in 2004. Second,Concerning the total number of elementary and middle school classes in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of classes in elementary school decreases as time goes on, whereas the total number of classes in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of classes in elementary school is 5,689 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 5,405 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 2,737 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 2,380 and falls in 2004. Third,Concerning the total number of teachers demanded for elementary and middle schools in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of teachers’ demand in elementary school decreases year after year except 2006, whereas the total number of teachers’ demand in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of teachers’ demand in elementary school is 8,904 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 8,458 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 5,685 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 4,957 and falls in 2004.

參考文獻


王慶熙(民90),我國未來六年國民中學體育科教師人力供需之推估研究。國立臺灣師範大學體育學系碩士論文。
楊深坑(民88),迎向新世紀的教育改革-方法論之省察與國際改革趨勢之比較分析。「教育改革、師資培育與教學科技:各國經驗」國際學術研討會,台北市。
林騰蛟(民78),專家決策支援系統建構技術在師資需求量推估應用之研究。國立台灣師範大學工業教育研究所碩士論文。
徐聖堯、楊靜利、王仕圖(民93),國小教師之供給量與需求量推估:民國92-102學年度。教育與社會研究,7期,頁99-118。
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被引用紀錄


王美婷(2008)。以系統動態學探討國小師資供需政策之研究〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-0209200810593100

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