本研究旨在瞭解桃園縣國民中小學師資人力需求,並探討影響桃園縣國民中小學師資需求之因素以建立研究推估模式,透過文獻探討、廻歸統計分析及逐年推估等方法,來推估桃園縣未來六年國民中小學師資需求情形,經過資料的整理及統計分析,獲得以下具體的結論: 壹、93-99學年度桃園縣地區國民中小學生總人數,國小的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而降低;國中的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,直到99學年度才開始有降低的趨勢。國小學生數推估最高者為95學年度179,587人,推估最低者為99學年度169,679人;國中學生數推估最高者為98學年度92,347人,推估最低者為93學年度86,859人。 貳、93-99學年度桃園縣各鄉鎮市區國民小學之班級數,國小的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,96學年度起開始降低;國中的部分:從93學年度起,隨著時間增加而增加,直到99學年度才開始有降低的趨勢。國小班級數推估最高者為95學年度5,689班,推估最低者為99學年度5,405班;國中班級數推估最高者為98學年度2,737班,推估最低者為93學年度2,380班。 參、93-99學年度桃園縣地區國民中小學教師需求推估總人數,國小部分:除95學年度有回升之外,其他皆隨著時間增加而降低的趨勢;國中部分:則隨著時間增加而增加,到99學年度才開始降低。國民小學教師需求總數推估最高者為95學年度8,904人,推估最低者為99學年度8,458人;國中教師需求總數推估最高者為98學年度5,685人,推估最低者為93學年度4,957人。
This research aims to clarify the demand of Taoyuan elementary and middle school teachers and explore the factors that contribute to the demand so as to establish the deductive and evaluative model of research. In other words, this research, by means of documentary studies, statistic analysis on return, and yearly deduction and evaluation, is to predict the demand of Taoyuan elementary and middle school teachers. Based on the documents and analyses, the conclusions are as follows. First,Concerning the total number of elementary and middle school students in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of students in elementary school decreases as time goes on, whereas the total number of students in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of students in elementary school is 179,587 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 169,679 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 92,347 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 86,859 and falls in 2004. Second,Concerning the total number of elementary and middle school classes in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of classes in elementary school decreases as time goes on, whereas the total number of classes in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of classes in elementary school is 5,689 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 5,405 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 2,737 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 2,380 and falls in 2004. Third,Concerning the total number of teachers demanded for elementary and middle schools in Taoyuan County from 2004 to 2010, the total number of teachers’ demand in elementary school decreases year after year except 2006, whereas the total number of teachers’ demand in middle school increases until 2010, and then it starts to decreases. According to the research, the largest number of teachers’ demand in elementary school is 8,904 and falls in 2006, while the smaller number is 8,458 and falls in 2010; the largest numbers of students in middle school is 5,685 and falls in 2009, while the smaller number is 4,957 and falls in 2004.
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