Title

結合FDM與DANP方法應用於老人養護機構區位選擇之研究

Translated Titles

Integrating FDM with DANP for the Location Selection of Elderly Nursing Institutions

Authors

詹勳展

Key Words

區位選擇 ; 養護機構 ; ANP ; DEMATEL ; FDM ; Location selection ; Nursing Institution ; DEMATEL ; ANP ; FDM

PublicationName

臺北科技大學工業工程與管理系碩士班學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2011年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

林榮禾

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

根據行政院經濟建設委員會於2010年指出,老年人口比率已達到10.7%;預估台灣於2017年將成為高齡國家;再到2025年的超高齡國家(20%),期間只有15年,老人相關社會問題向上攀升。隨著台灣步入工商社會後,雙薪家庭比例提高,且老年人口快速增加,因此難以照顧家中老人,再加上少子化、扶養比上升等等因素,使得一般家庭對於長期照護的需求一併提升。台灣目前機構式照顧資源的問題並不在於數量的不足,而是分布區位、服務品質、價格與民眾接受程度。面對未來長照需求提升,機構式照護仍然佔有一定的比例。欲解決上述問題及在已設置的限制條件下,增設一家新的機構為一較複雜的設施選址問題,其所需考慮到的層面非常廣,且在社區化與公平性的考量下,需達成地區均衡發展的目標實為困難。   因此本研究結合模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)與結合決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)於分析網路程序法方法(Analytic Network Process, ANP)找出台灣養護機構區位選擇之重要因素,並建構決策模型,以提供投資者或政府單位進行參考,如何在理性與客觀的前提下,完成選擇程序,獲得一最適選擇區域。其實例結果中,較高權重之準則依序為醫療支持、未來需求變化、進出障礙、交通建設、政策法令、長照需求人口數。在未來,實例也提供各區位政府或是投資者在做小型老人養護機構區位選址的決策時,可優先針對擁有這幾個較高權重準則之地區作為考慮。

English Abstract

According to the report of the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in 2010, the elderly population ratio had reached up to 10.7%. They predicted that Taiwan will become aged society in 2017, and in 2025, Taiwan will become super aged society. The problem of society related to senior citizen will continue to emerge within only 15 years.As Taiwan entered industrial society, the two-income families and elderly population had increased rapidly. So it is much harder to take care of elders in most of the families. Moreover, because of the declining birthrate and the rising dependency ratio, the requirements for long-term care of these families are increased. The issues of institutionalized care in Taiwan are not the amount now, but the distribution location, quality of service, cost and acceptance of populace. Face to the increasing requirements of long-term care in the future, institutionalized care must have an important place. Solving the mentioned issues and building a new care institution under the specific restrictions is a complex location selection problem, such as existing institutions’ supply and demand, environmental sanitation, life functions and local policies, etc. And it is hard to achieve local balance development under community and fairness.   This research combined DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to ANP (Analytic Network Process) method, to set up factors that nursing Institution location selection in Taiwan. And we constructed a decision model for investors or government as a reference to make the best decision under rationality and objectivity.In the example of study, It is getting all the weights of criterion, the more highly weights are medical service, future demand, Access barriers, transportation construction, strategy and demand of long-term care. In the future, the study offer to investors or government to making a good decision that is location selection of small-scale elderly nursing institution by criterion of higher weight.

Topic Category 管理學院 > 工業工程與管理系碩士班
工程學 > 工程學總論
社會科學 > 管理學
Reference
  1. 于漱、吳淑瓊、楊桂鳳,「失智症患者的長期照護服務模式」,長期照護雜誌,第七卷,第三期,2003,第251-264頁。
    連結:
  2. 台灣長期照護專業協會,認識台灣長期照護服務模式,網址: http://www.ltcpa.org.tw/public/choose_01.html,造訪日期:2010/11/05。
    連結:
  3. 吳淑瓊,全國長期照護需求評估調查,行政院衛生署,2001。
    連結:
  4. 許佩蓉、張俊喜、林靜宜、林壽惠、李世代,「機構式長期照護綜論」,台灣老年醫學雜誌,第一卷,第四期,2006,第198-215頁。
    連結:
  5. 許佩蓉,張俊喜,陳瑋,羅慶徽,「老人健康促進與衛生教育」,臺灣老人保健學刊,第二卷,第二期,2006,第105-111頁。
    連結:
  6. 郭宇湘,台灣燈會之地點選擇評估模式,碩士論文,高雄餐旅學院旅遊管
    連結:
  7. 陳世能,「台灣地區安療養機構經營效率之分析-資料包絡分析法」,經濟研究,第三十八卷,第一期,2002,第23-56頁。
    連結:
  8. 衛萬里,應用分析網路程序法選擇最佳產品設計方案之決策分析模式,博士論文,台灣科技大學設計研究所,台北,2006。
    連結:
  9. B. Chang, C.W. Chang, C.H. Wu, “Fuzzy DEMATEL method for developing supplier selection criteria,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.38, 2011, pp.1850-1858.
    連結:
  10. N. C. Dalkey, The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion, C.A.: The Rand Corporation, 1969, pp.1-15.
    連結:
  11. P. K. Dey and E. K. Ramcharan, “Analytic hierarchy process helps select site for limestone quarry expansion in Barbados,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol.88, 2008, pp.1384-1395.
    連結:
  12. A. F. Guneri, M. Cengiz and S. Seker, “A fuzzy ANP approach to shipyard location selection,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.36, 2009, pp.7992-7999.
    連結:
  13. A. H. Hu, S. H. Chen and C. W. Hsu, “An Evaluation Framework for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Sustainable Development Perspective,” 16th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference, Hong Kong, 2010.
    連結:
  14. P. F. Hsu, C. R. Wu and Z.R. Li, “Optimizing resource-based allocation for senior citizen housing to ensure a competitive advantage using the analytic hierarchy process,” Building and Environment, vol. 43, 2008, pp.90-97.
    連結:
  15. A. Ishikawa, T. Amagasa, G. Tamizawa, R. Totsuta and H. Mieno, “The Max-Min Delphi Method and Fuzzy Delphi Method Via Fuzzy Integration,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol.55, 1993, pp.241-253.
    連結:
  16. D.G. Kim and Y.D. Kim. “A branch and bound algorithm for determining locations of long-term care facilities,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol.206, 2010, pp.168-177.
    連結:
  17. R. K. Klimberg and S. J. Ratick, “Modeling data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficient location/allocation decisions,” Computers & Operations Research, vol.35 , 2008, pp.457-474.
    連結:
  18. PTR, 1995.
    連結:
  19. C. T. Lin and M. C. Tsai, “Development of an expert selection system to choose ideal cities for medical service ventures,” Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, pp.2266-2274.
    連結:
  20. C.L. Lin, M. S. Hsieh and G.H. Tzeng, “Evaluating vehicle telematics system by using a novel MCDM techniques with dependence and feedback,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.37, 2010, pp.6723-6736.
    連結:
  21. M. E. Porter, Competitive advantage of Nations, N.Y., 1990.
    連結:
  22. I. Randy, H. Anderson and W. Shelton, “Nursing Home Quality, Chain Affiliation, Profit Status and Performance,” Journal of Real Estate Research, vol. 25, no. 1, 2003, pp.43-60.
    連結:
  23. J. Sarkis and S. Talluri, “A Model for Strategic Supplier Selection,” Journal of Supply Chain Management, vol.38, no.1, 2002, pp.38-64.
    連結:
  24. J. Sarkis, “Quantitative models for performance measurement systems-alternate
    連結:
  25. T. L. Satty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, N.Y.:Mc Grow-Hill, 1971.
    連結:
  26. T. L. Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting,
    連結:
  27. Resource Allocation, Pittsburgh: RWS Publications, 1980.
    連結:
  28. T. L. Saaty, “Axiomatic Foundation of Analytic Hierarchy Process,” Management Science, vol.32, no.7, 1986, pp.841-855.
    連結:
  29. T. L. Saaty, Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback:The Analytic
    連結:
  30. T. L. Saaty, Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic
    連結:
  31. F. E. Shroff, “Siting Efficiency of Long-term Health Care Facilities,” Socio-Econ. Plann. Sci, Vol.32, No.1, 1998, pp.25-43.
    連結:
  32. W.H. Tsai, W. C. Chou and C. W. Lai., “An effective evaluation model and improvement analysis for national park websites: A case study of Taiwan,” Tourism Management, vol.31, 2010, pp.936-952.
    連結:
  33. H. Turoff, Linstone, The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, N.Y., Addison-Wesley, 1979.
    連結:
  34. G. H. Tzeng, C. H. Chiang and C. W. Li, “Evaluating intertwined effects in e-learning programs: A novel hybrid MCDM model based n factor analysis and DEMATEL,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.32, 2007, pp.1028-1044.
    連結:
  35. M. H. Vahidnia and A. A. Alesheikh, “Abbas Alimohammadi Hospital site selection using fuzzy AHP and its derivatives,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol.90, 2009, pp.3048-3056.
    連結:
  36. C. R. Wu, C. T. Lin and H. C. Chen, “Optimal selection of location for Taiwanese hospitals to ensure a competitive advantage by using the analytic hierarchy process and sensitivity analysis,” Building and Environment, vol.42, 2007, pp.1431-1444.
    連結:
  37. J. L. Yang and G. H. Tzeng, “An integrated MCDM technique combined with DEMATEL for a novelcluster-weighted with ANP method,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol.38, 2011, pp.1417-1424.
    連結:
  38. L. A. Zadeh, “Fuzzy sets,” Inform. Control, vol.8, 1965, pp.338-353.
    連結:
  39. 「中文」
  40. 行政院經濟建設委員會,中華民國臺灣民國97年至145年人口推計,台北:行政院經濟建設委員會,2008,第40-45頁。
  41. 行政院經濟建設委員會,我國長期照顧十年計畫,內政部社會司,2007。
  42. 李世代,「長期照護需求推估之探討」,社區發展季刊,2001,第67-71頁。
  43. 阮玉梅等,長期照護概論,台北:華杏出版股份有限公司,1999,第24-25頁。
  44. 徐瑤芬,基督教教會牧執同工資訊素養內涵之研究-以台中市為例,碩士論文,中華大學資訊管理所,新竹,2009。
  45. 張魁峯,Super Decisions軟體操作手冊-以ANP突破AHP的研究限制,台北:鼎茂圖書出版有限公司,2009,第10頁。
  46. 理研究所,高雄,2006。
  47. 郭淑珍,探討台灣地區19家護理之家經營績效,碩士論文,中國醫藥大學醫務管理學研究所,台中,2006。
  48. 陳哲昌,最適防災社區管理組織之研究:以山坡地社區為例,碩士論文,
  49. 華梵大學工業管理學系碩士班,新北,2002。
  50. 黃為寬,應用模糊層級分析法於小型養護機構投資開發評估之研究,碩士論文,新科技大學營建工程與管理研究所,新竹,2007。
  51. 黃婷妤,應用GIS於適宜老人居住區位之研究-以台中市為例,碩士論文,逢甲大學環境資訊科技碩士學位學程,台中,2010。
  52. 經建會人力規劃處,「2010年至2060年台灣人口推計」,台灣經濟論衡,第八卷,第九期,2010,第68-70頁。
  53. 經建會人力規劃處,「我國長期照護需求推估及服務供給現況」,台灣經濟論衡,第七卷,第十期,2009,第54-71頁。
  54. 蔡蕙如,應用層級分析法於老人社區住宅區位優選評估之研究-以彰化縣為
  55. 例,碩士論文,逢甲大學環境資訊科技研究所,台中,2010。
  56. 謝聖哲、鄭文輝,「影響台灣功能障礙老人照顧之因素」,台灣社會福利學刊,第四卷,第二期,2005,第179-219頁。
  57. 「英文」
  58. R. A. Kane and R. L. Kane, Long-term care: Principles, programs, and policies, N.Y.: Springer Publishing Co, 1987.
  59. G. J. Klir and B. Yuan, Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic, New Jersey:Prentice Hall
  60. considerations,” International Journal of Production Economics vol.86, 2003, pp.81-90.
  61. Network Process, Pittsburgh : RWS Publications, 1996.
  62. Network Process (Second ed.), Pittsburgh: RWS Publications, 2001.
  63. S. Stern, Heidemann and Bridget, “Strategic Play Among Family Members with
  64. Making Long-Term Care Decisions,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol.40, 1999, pp.29-57.
  65. W. G. Weissert, “Estimating the Long-Term Care Population:Prevalence Rates and Selected Characteristics,” Health Care Financing, 1985, pp.84.