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  • 學位論文

結合FDM與DANP方法應用於老人養護機構區位選擇之研究

Integrating FDM with DANP for the Location Selection of Elderly Nursing Institutions

指導教授 : 林榮禾
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摘要


根據行政院經濟建設委員會於2010年指出,老年人口比率已達到10.7%;預估台灣於2017年將成為高齡國家;再到2025年的超高齡國家(20%),期間只有15年,老人相關社會問題向上攀升。隨著台灣步入工商社會後,雙薪家庭比例提高,且老年人口快速增加,因此難以照顧家中老人,再加上少子化、扶養比上升等等因素,使得一般家庭對於長期照護的需求一併提升。台灣目前機構式照顧資源的問題並不在於數量的不足,而是分布區位、服務品質、價格與民眾接受程度。面對未來長照需求提升,機構式照護仍然佔有一定的比例。欲解決上述問題及在已設置的限制條件下,增設一家新的機構為一較複雜的設施選址問題,其所需考慮到的層面非常廣,且在社區化與公平性的考量下,需達成地區均衡發展的目標實為困難。   因此本研究結合模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)與結合決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)於分析網路程序法方法(Analytic Network Process, ANP)找出台灣養護機構區位選擇之重要因素,並建構決策模型,以提供投資者或政府單位進行參考,如何在理性與客觀的前提下,完成選擇程序,獲得一最適選擇區域。其實例結果中,較高權重之準則依序為醫療支持、未來需求變化、進出障礙、交通建設、政策法令、長照需求人口數。在未來,實例也提供各區位政府或是投資者在做小型老人養護機構區位選址的決策時,可優先針對擁有這幾個較高權重準則之地區作為考慮。

關鍵字

區位選擇 養護機構 ANP DEMATEL FDM

並列摘要


According to the report of the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in 2010, the elderly population ratio had reached up to 10.7%. They predicted that Taiwan will become aged society in 2017, and in 2025, Taiwan will become super aged society. The problem of society related to senior citizen will continue to emerge within only 15 years.As Taiwan entered industrial society, the two-income families and elderly population had increased rapidly. So it is much harder to take care of elders in most of the families. Moreover, because of the declining birthrate and the rising dependency ratio, the requirements for long-term care of these families are increased. The issues of institutionalized care in Taiwan are not the amount now, but the distribution location, quality of service, cost and acceptance of populace. Face to the increasing requirements of long-term care in the future, institutionalized care must have an important place. Solving the mentioned issues and building a new care institution under the specific restrictions is a complex location selection problem, such as existing institutions’ supply and demand, environmental sanitation, life functions and local policies, etc. And it is hard to achieve local balance development under community and fairness.   This research combined DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method to ANP (Analytic Network Process) method, to set up factors that nursing Institution location selection in Taiwan. And we constructed a decision model for investors or government as a reference to make the best decision under rationality and objectivity.In the example of study, It is getting all the weights of criterion, the more highly weights are medical service, future demand, Access barriers, transportation construction, strategy and demand of long-term care. In the future, the study offer to investors or government to making a good decision that is location selection of small-scale elderly nursing institution by criterion of higher weight.

並列關鍵字

Location selection Nursing Institution DEMATEL ANP FDM

參考文獻


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