潛盾隧道施工風險評估之研究

The Study of Construction Risk Assessment of Shield Tunneling

劉又禎(Yu-Chen Liu)

指導教授 ： 張寬勇

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

為因應台灣軟弱地盤之開挖，大多數之地下工程多採用潛盾隧道施工法。此工法自民國六十四年引進國內，已逾三十年之久。雖然在台灣已累積相當多之施工經驗，但施工災害並未因此而降低發生次數。 隨著都市發展，潛盾隧道施工作業環境日趨複雜，又潛盾隧道施工為風險較高之作業，且所需之施工技術也相對較高，故在各項施工作業項目過程中，仍具有高度之不確定性。有鑑於此，將潛盾隧道施工風險之各項重大危害因子進行評估分析，以降低未來潛盾隧道施工之風險。本研究先將潛盾隧道施工災害、風險管理與風險評估相關文獻進行分析與整理，再蒐集潛盾隧道施工時發生災害之案例，並針對災害案例中，進一步評估各項施工作業項目之風險因子，再輔以模糊理論作為計算施工災害風險程度之方法，進而推估各項作業項目施工時所發生風險之高低程度。 本研究成果透過模擬案例的評估結果顯示，其發生災害之風險程度高達54.92%，屬於中度危險的風險，雖可接受但需作殘留風險管制。由其可知，當背景條件較差時，風險度相對增加，故基於風險之考量，著實有必要對背景條件較差者進行改善，使得改善後之風險降至可接受之程度，以達到風險管控之目的。

關鍵字

潛盾隧道 ； 施工風險 ； 風險評估 ； 模糊理論

並列摘要

Because of the soft ground excavation in Taiwan, most of the underground constructions uses the shield tunneling method. The first introduction of this method has already more than 30 years (since 1975). Though we have accumulated a lot of building experiences, the construction damages had never been reduced.
As the city developing, the operating environment of the shield tunneling method become more complicated. Also, due to the high risk of building conditions when using the shield tunneling method, the good working technique is highly required. Therefore, the damage is still high uncertain during the operating processes. Overall speaking, we analyze the major factors of risk for the shield tunneling construction in order to reduce the possible damage in the future. In the present work, we studied the damages of the shield tunneling method, risk managements, and risk assessments from the references, collected the cases of disaster during constructing and then analysis the working conditions of the risk factors. Afterall, used the fuzzy control theory to simulate the degree of risk in every construction.
The results show that the risk of occurring disaster is as high as 54.92%. Although it is still in the middle of danger stage and is acceptable, still need to do the risk management. Therefore, when working in the poor conditions, the risk degree increases relatively. In order to reduce the risk, it is necessary to improve the condition from poor to acceptable and to further achieve the purpose of risk management.

並列關鍵字

Shield Tunneling ； Construction Risk ； Risk Assessment ； Fuzzy Theory

參考文獻

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