陸軍武器建案獲得途徑決策關鍵因素之研究

A study of key decision-making factors in weapons acquisitions of Army

張舒萍(Shu-Ping Chang)

指導教授 ： 王維康

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

由於現代科技的日新月異，以及全球性的市場競爭，若不能快速掌握關鍵的技術，取得競爭上的優勢，將難於市場上生存；武力之競賽亦不下於企業間的競爭情況，從企業組織的觀點，於制定技術取得策略之決策時，基本思考邏輯形同內部化之「自行研發」與向外「採購」的決策；亦同為Make or Buy 的抉擇。
為瞭解我國武器獲得途徑決策關鍵因素的形成，必須要進一步深入探討決策過程的考量因素，並加以釐清各項因素對於決策過程之影響，俾使我陸軍決策階層瞭解武器獲得決策過程與內涵，及武器系統所含各項關鍵因素的重要性。本研究從政治系統中的武器獲得管理環境及我國現有武器可能獲得的各個不同途徑作一深入的探討，並對我國武器獲得途徑的運作結構進行深入的分析，進而瞭解問題產生的根本原因，以提出改善方案作為武器獲得策略運用的參考。
本研究鑑於上述說明，乃先彙整並探討武器獲得管理之相關學理，其次說明陸軍在武獲管理的執行現況，之後則是利用科學的分析手法，包括模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method)、模糊分析層級程序法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process；簡稱FAHP)等問卷分析方法加以分析，提出一個系統化武器獲得管理關鍵因素評估模式，此模式包含「整體後勤支援管理」、「成本管理」、「科技管理」、「執行能力」、「系統工程能力」與「國際與國家政治能力」六個構面，共計二十七項指標，透過層級串聯後各主要構面之相對權重值及其整體排序，可得知目前陸軍執行武器獲得管理應優先改善的項目，進而能提供決策者在研擬改善對策時的參考資料。

關鍵字

自製或外購 ； 關鍵成功因素 ； 權重:模糊德菲法 ； 模糊層級分析法

並列摘要

Due to modern technology　changing and global market competitions, it is difficult to survive without superior competitive advantages gaining from core techniques. National force competitions are the same as enterprises’. From enterprise operation point of view, in making decisions of technique acquisition strategy, principle logics formation is either to chose domestic developments or oversea parchments, which is same as to make or to buy decisions.
　In order to comprehend key decision-making factors in forming weapons acquisitions, it is necessary to further study current consideration elements in our process and to verify those effects of elements on decision making. This helps executive management of R.O.C. Army to understand the process and contents of weapon acquisitions as well as level of importance of key factors involved in weapon systems. This dissertation is to study management environment of weapon acquisitions in political systems and possible approaches to weapon acquisitions. Further analysis to operational structures of weapon acquisitions. Then obtain knowledge of root causes as reference to improvements of weapon acquisition strategies.
　As objects mentioned above, this study summarizes relative theories of weapon acquisition management and illustrates current execution of weapon acquisition management followed by scientific analysis. Then provides a model evaluating key success factors in systematical weapon acquisitions, based on suggestions from data analysis from questionnaires in accordance with Fuzzy Delphi Method, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process . This model provides 6 dimensions, integrated logistic support management, cost management, technology management, executing capability, system engineering capability, international and national political capability as well as 27 indexes. After synergy of hierarchical factors in this study, with understanding on weights of each major dimension and on overall sequence, prior subjects to be improved of current national army weapon acquisitions can be understood and this study can further provide decision makers better reference on countermeasures for improvements.

並列關鍵字

make-or-buy ； key success factors ； weight ； Fuzzy Delphi Method ； Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

參考文獻

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