多準則決策模式之比較分析 - 以個案為例探討

A comparative Study of Multiple Criteria Decision Making Techniques on Two Cases

鄒沛成(Pei-Chen Tsou)

指導教授 ： 徐旭昇

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2013.00162

摘要

決策分析在現今科技發達的時代越來越重要，在產業競爭、公共政策等問題處處可見，多準則決策模式更是經常使用的解決問題之工具：例如層級分析法、網路程序法、簡易多屬性排序技術、資料包絡分析法等等。本研究之主旨在於探討一些決策模式之特性，文中使用兩個案來比較分析這些方法。
　　一個案源自於已發表論文－水資源系統之評選，對此問題本研究將原論文中之8種方案，採用與文中相同層級準則結構與評選資料，應用VIKOR、PROMETHEE、Evamix以及Fuzzy VIKOR四種方法來對方案排序，其中Fuzzy VIKOR主要是探討相同數據與語意評估下，與明確值模式所產生結果之差異。另一個案為本研究所提出，利用某電子科技公司所發展之智慧型自動販賣機進行大型賣場樓層設置最佳化決策。此個案尋找一群專家及決策者，利用雙三角模糊數德爾菲法，來建立評選層級準則結構，並使用VIKOR及Fuzzy VIKOR將所有方案排序並做比較分析。
　　就個案一而言，本研究發現應用PROMETHEE時，由於其兩兩方案凌駕函數定義只計算贏的差值，對於負值的狀況，無論其值之大小皆以0計算，所計算得出之數值誤差較輸贏淨值計算方式為大，在Evamix方法中，其特色為將質化及量化數據分開計算。由於本研究個案二之數據由專家及顧客問卷所得均為質化之數據，故採用VIKOR與Fuzzy VIKOR方法來處理。研究結果顯示此兩種方法之數據具有相當高之一致性，亦即有相同方案排序。

關鍵詞：多準則決策、模糊德爾菲法、模糊理論、VIKOR、PROMETHEE

關鍵字

多準則決策 ； 模糊德爾菲法 ； 模糊理論 ； VIKOR ； PROMETHEE

並列摘要

Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides management a framework for evaluating decision options against multiple criteria. The paper investigates the features of two or more of the following four decision making techniques: VIKOR, PROMETHEE II, Evamix, and Fuzzy VIKOR, with applications to two practical cases: (1) selection of water resource system and (2) selection of location for intelligent and multi-functional vending machines in a large shopping mall. The first case is taken from the article by Abrishamchi et al. (2005), where AHP was applied to determine the hierarchical structure and the attribute weights, and compromising programming and PROMETTHEE II were applied to select one of the 8 urban water supply systems. We propose the aforementioned four methods to solve and compare the same case problem, and discuss the specific features of the four methods. The PROMETHEE generates results based on the maximum of group utility, whereas the VIKOR method integrates group utility and minimal individual regret. The characteristic of Evamix is that it treats ordinal and cardinal data separately.
The objective of the second case study is to rank several location alternatives for a fashion and multi-function model of intelligent vending machines in a large shopping center with the objective of promoting marketing sales. A hybrid multiple criteria decision making technique including three-step procedures are used: (1) fuzzy Delphi method to establish hierarchical attribute structure, (2) AHP method to determine the weight of each attribute, and (3) VIKOR and fuzzy VIKOR to rank the location alternatives. The results indicate that the ranking using the two evaluation methods in (3) are highly consistent.

Keywords: Multiple criteria decision making, fuzzy Delphi, VIKOR, PROMETHEE, Evamix, fuzzy theory

並列關鍵字

Multiple criteria decision making ； fuzzy Delphi ； VIKOR ； PROMETHEE ； fuzzy theory ； Evamix

參考文獻

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