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  • 學位論文

法拍屋價格空間分布與投資行為之研究-以台南市為例

The Analysis of Spatial Allocation of Court Auction Housing Prices and Investment Behavior-A Case of Tainan City

指導教授 : 謝博明

摘要


本研究以台南市東區、南區、中西區、北區、安平區及安南區等六行政區為範圍,利用空間自我相關檢測方法分析2007~2009年透天法拍屋價格空間分布與高低價格聚集情形,以瞭解法拍屋的市場動態與區位,作為法拍屋投資者在進行投資決策之參考。經實證結果發現,2009年法拍屋價格空間聚集情形較2007年及2008年更為聚集,而且法拍屋價格在空間自我相關上皆呈現正相關。2007年與2008年高價位法拍屋聚集的地區位置較相近,大部份在台南市的中西區湖美社區附近與東區、北區交界處,而2009年高價位法拍屋聚集的地區大部份在中西區、安平區及南區交界處,其位置靠近五期重劃區。低價位法拍屋聚集的地區幾乎集中在台南市的安南區舊部落區與南區偏南及偏東的部分。 其次,再以訪談方式探討法拍屋投資者投標法拍屋時,所考量的決策因素及資訊,透過訪談結果進一步瞭解法拍屋投資者於投資過程中其投資行為與法拍屋價格空間分布之關連性。藉由訪談整理得知,大部分的法拍屋投資者會以「區位」為主要評估因素,受訪者均認為區位對法拍屋投資是重要影響因素,尤其共同認為目前台南市東區為最適合投資法拍屋的地區。 另外,大多數的投資行為對價格空間分布的概念並不明確,可能是由於受訪者之平均投資經驗年期較長,因此對台南市法拍屋之個案價格分析大都依賴其累積之專業與投資經驗加以判斷。由於市場分析資料的缺乏,故對於高低價格法拍屋聚集情況之市場分析,其認知差距上似乎較為模糊,但亦有受訪者認為若有參考數據及分布圖據,亦不失為投資法拍屋之參考準據之一,顯示本研究對高低價格法拍屋之聚集空間分布實證結果,對台南市投資者之區位選擇,提供另一種投資行為之客觀市場分析資料,可以藉由客觀市場分析資料的判讀,來降低其投資行為所帶來的風險,並得提高投資行為之預測與判斷。

並列摘要


This study analyzes spatial concentration of court auction housing prices in six districts of Tainan city from 2007 to 2009, and these results can be used in investment decision of court auction houses. The results show that it exist significantly positive spatial correlation among court auction housing prices. The prices in 2009 had higher concentration than thoses in 2007 and 2008. During 2007 and 2008, higher prices were concentrated in Hu-mei area of Central-West district and boarder areas of East and North districts. In 2009, higher price areas had been swithed to Central-West district and boarder areas of Anping and Annan districts, while lower prices area were concentrated in older areas of Annan and South districts. Furthermore, this study employs an in-depth interview to experienced court auction housing investors regarding the factors and information affecting their investment decisions, and also investigates their opinions about the relationship between spatial allocation of court auction houses and their investment behaviors. The results indicate that location is the most important factor affecting court auction housing investment. These professionals also suggest that East district is the optimal investment area. In addition, the results indicate that most interviewees donot have a clear spatial pattern regarding the allocation of court auction houses. They made an investment decision usually depending upon their professional experiences rather than market analysis techniques. However, some interviewees suggest that spatial concentration of higher and lower prices of court auction houses should be useful to analyze market conditons. As a result, the results of this study can provide alternative approaches to analyze the court auction housing market and thus lowering investment risks and helping investment decision making.

參考文獻


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