台灣地區之都市成長與災害風險的研究

Urban Growth and Disaster Risk Study in Taiwan

王文宏(Wen-Hung Wang)

指導教授 ： 薩支平

長榮大學/管理學院/土地管理與開發學系(所)/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6833/CJCU.2011.00182

摘要

臺灣暴露於潛在的災害衝擊之下，且都市發展與變遷，使都市暴露於災害衝擊的機會、暴露量提升。本研究探討臺灣地區的都市成長與災害衝擊程度之因果關聯，藉此以提供管理或規劃者規範引導都市的發展與災害時有依據參考。
本研究運用官方統計資料，彙整衡量都市成長與災害風險；以統計分析檢視都市成長與災害風險的關聯性，再以地理資訊系統呈現都市成長與災害風險的空間分佈。都市成長資料取自於各縣市之統計要覽，災害風險資料取自於消防署的災害應變處置報告書，與國家災害防救科技中心的勘災調查報告書。受限於資料之選樣，研究時間為1996至2008年，研究範圍為台灣本島與澎湖縣，共358個鄉鎮市區。
研究發現，台灣過去13年的都市成長幅度並不明顯，唯有中度發展的都市，有較明顯成長；高度發展都市地區皆位於縣市的行政中心，而緊鄰著是中度發展都市，至於低度發展都市則分佈於較為偏遠的山區或更遠離於縣市行政中心的地區。災害衝擊程度，於時間範圍受特定重大災害事件影響，無法在時間向度上檢視變化趨勢；空間的分佈上，以平均每年災害衝擊程度與平均個人災害衝擊程度的疊圖分析發現，最高風險且最高損失的鄉鎮市區有：臺中縣石岡鄉、東勢鎮、和平鄉，及新社鄉，此地區皆是九二一地震重創的鄉鎮。都市化程度於時間上變異與災害風險是無關聯的，與研究假說不一致，可能受制於研究時間範圍，短時間內無反映其變化趨勢。本研究試圖透過2008年現況探討兩者的關聯性發現，兩者具有相關連性；都市化程度越高的地區則災害衝擊程度將越高，平均每人損失也隨著都市化程度而增加。
本研究建議地方政府或管理單位能加強管理都市的開發，來降低災害損失。高度發展都市能集中於相對較安全之地區開發，避免於危險地區過度的開發，而讓人口、建築設施…等，高度的暴露於災害衝擊之下；山坡地或偏遠的地區因地理環境之因素，相對是較為危險之地區，因此可藉由總量管制，限制其開發，甚至人口、建築設施避免進駐於高危險地區，藉此能夠降低災害損失。

關鍵字

都市成長 ； 災害風險 ； 地理資訊系統

並列摘要

Taiwan is exposed to significant potential of disaster losses. The land use changes and urban development further the probability and the exposures of disaster threats. This study explores the causal relationship between urban growth and the potentials of being impacted by disasters. The findings can provide a solid basis for city planners and administrators to regulate future development while preventing disaster losses.
This study utilizes the governmental statistics to measure the extent of urban growth and disaster risk. Geographical information system is also used to systematically display the spatial distribution of these factors. The information of urban growth is derived from the local governmental statistics; the information of the risks and disasters is collected via the Disaster Responses Reports of the National Fire Agency. The study has its time span between 1996 and 2008, and geographical span is limited to the islands of Taiwan and Penghu. Overall, this study comprises 358 townships and districts.
This research reveals that the urban growth in Taiwan was quite insignificant in the past 13 years, except those moderate-sized cities. Highly developed cities are most likely the administrative centers in each county. The moderate-sized cities are located around those highly developed cities. As to the least developed cities, are located at remote areas and farther away from administrative centers.The extent of disaster losses is affected by specific severe disaster events. Thus, the examination of the trend of disaster losses was unsuccessful. Spatially, we observed the average disaster losses and losses per capita from map overlays. The cities of the highest disaster losses are Shigang, Dongshi, Heping, and Xinshe in Taichung City. These areas were severely hit by the 921 earthquake in 1999. Over the time duration of this study, the association between the extent of urbanization and the disaster losses is not revealed, for which the research hypothesis is rejected. It could be due to the limited research time span, which is too short to reflect the tendency. This research also tried to examine the association between the measurement of urbanization as of 2008, and the accumulated disaster losses since 1996, and the association was significant. The more urbanized of an area, there were more losses induced from disasters. Also, per capita losses increase as the extent of urbanization rises.
This study suggests that the local government should strengthen the management of new development, thus reduce losses from disasters. Highly developed cities should be compact and dense, and their location should be free from disaster impacts. The exposure of new development/population to disasters should be limited. Hillside and remote areas are the most dangerous placed in Taiwan. Therefore, the management of urban growth can be conducted thru setting quantitative development thresholds to limit new developments. Any strategy that prevents new population and building into these dangerous areas can be effective in mitigating future losses.

並列關鍵字

Urban Growth ； hazard risks ； Geographic Information System (GIS)

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