A study on the Inhabitants Purchase Behaviors in the Houchiali Fault and Its Neighboring Area in Tainan
活動斷層 ； 購屋行為 ； 購屋因素 ； 住宅價格 ； 時間序列分析法 ； Active Fault ； Purchase Behavior ； Purchase Factors ； Housing Price ； Time Series Analysis
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921地震重創台灣地區經濟活動與產業發展，斷層帶及鄰近地區居民生活機能亦深受影響。當時台中市政府於地震發生後三個多月，公布車籠埔斷層中心線兩側各十五公尺範圍內土地，於2000年1月1日起實施禁建。因此，斷層帶鄰近地區土地使用受限，造成地價下跌致影響民眾購屋因素上之考量，因此斷層帶鄰近地區消費者之購屋行為與購屋因素考量為目前土地利用重要課題，亦為本文之研究主題。 台南市東區虎尾寮重劃區所在位置部份為後甲里斷層，屬於存疑性活動斷層。然虎尾寮重劃區依然吸引民眾購屋，雖位在活動斷層上，但由於交通便捷、文風鼎盛、生活機能便利等因素，甚至晉升台南市頂級住宅區之一。本研究為瞭解斷層存在是否影響斷層帶及其鄰近地區居民購屋因素考量與活動斷層認知，因此選定虎尾寮（研究區Ⅰ）與後甲里斷層鄰近地區（研究區Ⅱ）為研究範圍，透過問卷調查法探求居民主要考量；並整理由政府定期發行的住宅交易資料輔以客觀立場，採時間序列分析法，建構住宅價格模型，分析影響東區房價主因與探討921地震是否造成其房價的變化。經由問卷調查結果統計分析及住宅價格模型實證分析後得到下列結果： 1.「有無活動斷層」皆未納入東區居民購屋主因之內；吸引居民在東區購屋主因為交通因素、文風鼎盛與生活機能便利等三項。 2.逾半數以上研究區Ⅱ居民（57.28％）購屋時會把「住宅是否位於斷層帶上」視為考慮購屋因素（但並非購屋主因）。其中，七成以上有工作的受訪者、45歲以下的受訪者、月收入5萬以下的受訪者購屋時多會考量此一因素；顯示有穩定工作、主購屋年齡層或一般受薪階級會把「有無活動斷層」納入購屋考量。 3.逾半數以上研究區Ⅰ居民（63.55％）將來仍繼續考慮在當地購屋。其中，有工作與45歲以下的受訪者購屋時多考慮防災因素，無工作與45歲以上的受訪者購屋時則多考慮個人偏好或其他想法等。九成以上研究區Ⅱ居民（90.29％）將來則不考慮到虎尾寮或斷層帶購屋。 4.逾半數以上研究區Ⅰ居民（60.75％）雖認為斷層會影響購屋考量，但更重視交通因素、文風鼎盛與生活機能便利等購屋主因，所以仍繼續在當地購屋。近九成研究區Ⅱ居民（89.32％）則認為斷層會影響購屋考量。 5.八成以上研究區Ⅰ居民（80.37％）認為當地房價不會受到後甲里斷層影響，因為ヾ房屋推陳出新，建商因此注重耐震防災措施，品質更有保障；ゝ該斷層尚未造成相當程度的損害。 6.本研究推論四個可能發生事件影響東區房價波動的時間點為83年第2季、86年第3季、87年第1季及91年第1季，但並未包含921地震（88年第4季）。 7.本研究推論導致東區房價上漲原因為ヾ83年由於景氣活絡，政府推出平價住宅政策；ゝ86至87年間亞洲金融風暴，央行提供紓困措施促進房地產的需求；ゞ90年納莉颱風重創北台灣，促進桃園、新竹以南地區的新移民潮。 9.921地震發生後五季，造成東區住宅價格平均約下跌7.43％。雖然東區房價受921地震影響，斷層存在可能引發地震，但活動斷層並非東區居民購屋主因考量。 10.以第二期住宅模型為例，若僅預測未來1季房價時，其預測誤差僅維持在4.28％，但若進一步預測未來二季時，預測誤差則增加至8.75％∼9.62％，但仍落在預測值95％信賴區間內。五期中有三期模型的預測房價出現此情況，顯示時間序列分析法適合短期預測，因此本研究的結果可供住宅價格研究參考。
921 Earthquake influenced the economic activitives and property development in Taiwan deeply, and also influenced the fault and its neighbouring area inhabitants’ vital functions. At that time the government in Taichung announced both sides land in the Chelungpu fault center line within 15 meters was prohibited to build since January 1, 2000. So, the land use of neighbouring area was limited, caused housing price to drop and caused inhabitants’ purchase factors. Therefore, at present one of important lessons of land uses is the fault and its neighbouring area consumer’s purchase behavior and purchase factors, and it is also a research theme of this study. One part of the Hu Wei Liao readjustment areas in Tainan city belongs to the Houchiali Fault, which is a suspected active fault. Although Hu Wei Liao is located at the Houchiali Fault, it attracted to many people to buy houses here because of convenience traffic, prosperous academic lifestyle and living convenience. To realize the fault existence if it influences the fault and its neighbouring area inhabitants’ purchase factors and cognition of active faults, so this study regards Hu Wei Liao（District Ⅰ）and an neighbouring area of the Houchiali Fault （District Ⅱ）as research ranges. This study had discussed inhabitants’ subjective purchase factors by using questionnaire survey, and had reorganized housing transaction material regularly published by the government by an objective standpoint. To build housing price models by using time series analysis, we could learn how to cause housing price to drop and if 921 Earthquake had caused the change of housing price in East District. The outcome of this study was obtained by questionnaire survey result statistical analysis and housing price model diagnosis analysis as listed below： 1. Active fault is not included in the major factors of house purchases among the inhabitants in East District in Tainan City. 2. More than half of the inhabitants in District II (57.28%) put active faults into the considerations related to purchase factors. However, such consideration is not critical. Among them, more than 70% of interviewees who have jobs, who are younger than 45, and whose monthly income are below 50 thousand tend to pay more attentions to this factor. This shows that people who has a stable job, whose age is within the major house purchasing range, and salariats care about the active faults. 3. More than half of the inhabitants in District I (63.55%) are considering house purchases locally. Among them, interviewees who are employed or below 45 years old tend to pay more attentions to disaster prevention while interviews who are not employed or above 45 care more about personal preferences and other considerations. More than 90 percent of inhabitants in District II (90.29%) refuse to consider house purchases in Hu Wei Liao or fault zones. 4. More than half of the inhabitants in District I (60.75%) think that although active faults are considered in house purchases, traffic factors, surroundings, and living convenience are actually what they care about. Therefore, they continue to purchase houses locally. On the contrary, nearly 90% of the inhabitants (89.32%) in District II care about the active faults in house purchases. 5. More than 80 percent of inhabitants in District I (80.37%) believe that local housing price will not be impacted by the Houchiali Fault. Here are the reasons: (1). new houses are being built. Constructors are paying more attentions to the disaster prevention measures. Houses had had better quality than ever. (2). The fault has not brought any severe damage. 6. In this study, we reason out four possible time points, at which some events may occur and have impacts on the real estate market in the East District: Season 2, 1994; Season 3, 1997; Season 1, 1998; and Season 1, 2002. 921 Earthquake is not included. (Season 4, 1999). 7. We think the reasons for the rise of housing price in East District are: (1). affordable housing policy promoted by the government in 1994, because of economic boom at that time; (2). the relief measures by the central bank which stimulated the needs in real estate market during the Asia economic crises in 1997 and 1998; (3). the emigration tide towards the regions to the south of Taoyuan and Shinchu after the hit of Typhoon Nari in 2001. 8. The housing price in the East District has dropped for 7.43% in the five seasons after 921 Earthquake. Although the local housing price was impacted by the earthquake, active fault is not a major factor of house purchase among the local inhabitants. 9. Let’s take the proposed model of houses in phase II as an example. For the forecast of the next season, the deviation is only about 4.28%. If the forecast is extended to the next two seasons, the deviation is increased to 8.75-9.62%. That’s still within the confidence interval of 95%. This situation can be observed in three of the five phases, indicating that the time series analysis is good for short-term forecast. Therefore, this study can be referred to in the research of housing price.
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