國防軍備工業研發計畫,在科技快速發展及系統性能更多元化、精密化、複雜化等環境下,使得管理與武器系統研發成果不確定性相對提高。 從管理面而言,計畫風險管理的目的在於事前風險因應而非事後補救。本研究以決策模式建立法,探討國防研發計畫技術面風險評估模式建立的有效性,從理論與個案中探討技術風險模糊評估模式的構建,並經由個案實證完成研究 。 本研究運用層級分析程序法(AHP 法) 模糊理論(Fuzzy) 構建風險「同時指標」、「領先指標」趨勢分析等,將複雜之大型研發武器系統,層層綿密技術工作構面,在理論引領下依層級逐步進行分析探討,發展出理論與實務並進模式構建及實證研究,供研發計畫技術風險評估參考運用。 此範疇未來尚有甚多研究與探討之空間值得續作開發與推展,謹將本文作為個人投身國防研發計畫技術風險評估領域之起步。
The Uncertainty of a project will increase as the scale of the national defense system R&D project between project management and weapon's R&D. From the management perspective, risk management plays the key role in the project risk management is preventive not treatment process. Based on the theory applied and case study method, this article explored the effectiveness of the technical risk evaluation for the large-scale R&D projects by establish a fuzzy evaluation model. The article explored with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Theory, and Risk Index include “same time and “future, inductive criteria are also provided to insure the consistent and exclusive of the model. After analyzing risk events and their response of the R&D project, construct the determinants of technical analytic respective according R&D procedure progressing. By the theory study and instruct, the technical risk evaluation model constructed and demonstration. There are more developed and conclude this research. The implications of the propositions and the future study are also discussed. The article just for began to study Defense R&D project technical risk evaluations field.