Title

貨幣政策、能源消費與景氣循環

Translated Titles

Monetary Policy, Energy Consumption, and Business Cycle

Authors

吳昭瑩

Key Words

實質景氣循環 ; 能源消費 ; 貨幣供給 ; 交易付現限制式 ; Cash-in-advance ; Real business cycle ; Energy consumption

PublicationName

中原大學國際貿易研究所學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2004年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

林師模

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

追求長期穩定的經濟成長是每個國家都亟欲追求的目標,然而,在經濟發展過程中,外在的衝擊常常導致經濟體系的景氣循環波動,而短期間景氣循環的大幅波動將不利於經濟體系的穩定發展。長久以來,景氣循環的相關研究一直受到總體經濟學者的關注,1973年石油危機所造成之景氣衰退,更使學者將景氣波動主因的探討從貨幣面因素移向實質面因素,進而促成實質景氣循環(Real Business Cycle;RBC)學派的興起。 本研究從兩個層面探討我國在景氣循環的過程中,貨幣與能源消費間的互動關係。在理論模擬的層面,係以一基本的實質景氣循環模型為基礎,再參考Cooley and Hansen (1989) 的交易付現(Cash in advance;CIA)限制式將貨幣機制帶入RBC模型中,以模擬能源價格衝擊與貨幣衝擊對能源使用、產出及通貨膨脹等總體變數的影響,並試圖探究造成景氣波動的來源。至於在實證分析的層面,本研究則是利用共同趨勢與共同循環(common trend and common cycle)方法,估計能源價格、能源使用、產出及通貨膨脹各變數的長、短期互動關係。理論模擬與實證分析的結果彙整後,本研究進一步歸納出重要的政策及經濟意涵。 本研究模擬結果顯示,經濟體系遭受能源價格衝擊時,將造成產出的減少,而此時若央行立刻採取寬鬆貨幣政策,以減緩景氣的衰退,則必須承受物價上漲的壓力。至於若物價上漲的幅度過大,央行也將緊縮貨幣以抑制通貨膨脹;而央行的貨幣政策在鬆緊之間擺盪,將會造成景氣波動加劇,反而不利於長期的經濟成長。在實證的結果方面,能源價格上漲會引起物價的上漲與接踵而來的經濟不景氣,而央行為緩和這些不利影響,會利用貨幣政策調節,適度寬鬆銀根以因應景氣波動所造成的衝擊。另外,國內的產出水準與能源使用間具高度相關性,過去政府基於產業發展的考量,實施管制式的能源價格政策,使國內的能源價格低於國際能源價格。然而,管制式的能源價格政策卻也造成資源配置無效率,能源的技術效率亦無法有效提升;一旦能源價格發生長期性衝擊時,我國經濟體系將無法避免受到影響。

English Abstract

Seeking a stable long-term economic growth path is one of every nation’s primary goals. However, in the process of economic development exogenous shocks often lead to business cycle fluctuations, which has motivated macroeconomic researchers to search for relevant explanations on the causes of business cycle fluctuations. In 1973, the recession following the oil price surge had urged researchers to investigate extensively the causes of economic fluctuations with a switch of focus from monetary side to real side and had since promoted the theory of real business cycle. This study explores the interactions between money and energy in Taiwan from two distinct yet related aspects. In the theoretical side, we use a real business cycle model that integrates money into the model based on the specification of cash-in-advance constraint by Cooley and Hansen (1989). We simulate the effect of energy shock and monetary shock on aggregate variables such as energy consumption, output and inflation and try to figure out the reasons of fluctuations. As to the empirical analysis, we use common trend and common cycle methods to estimate the interactions among energy price, energy consumption, output and inflation. The simulation results of the RBC model reveal that energy price shocks will lead to a decrease in output. During this time, the Central Bank will adopt expansive monetary policy in order to slow down the recession, but with the price of an increase in the general price level. If the fluctuations of price increase become violent, the Central Bank will then reduce money supply to avoid inflation. The empirical results show that the rise in energy price also leads to an increase in the price of commodities and hence the recession. In this case, the Central Bank will use monetary policy to adjust money supply. We also find that there is a high correlation between domestic output and energy consumption. In addition, taking regulatory policy will cause resource allocation to be inefficient.

Topic Category 商學院 > 國際貿易研究所
社會科學 > 經濟學
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