透過您的圖書館登入
IP:3.227.229.194
  • 學位論文

會計資訊與財務危機預測:考量財務危機嚴重程度差異

Accounting Information and Prediction of Financial Crisis: Concerning the Difference of the Extent among Financial Crisis

指導教授 : 林維珩
若您是本文的作者,可授權文章由華藝線上圖書館中協助推廣。

摘要


財務危機預測模式主要是藉由企業發生財務危機前之財務狀況,預測未來將會發生危機之機率,以提供大多數投資者作為一種預警的指標,除此之外,也能提供企業本身更深一層之防護作用。 本研究以1999年至2002年上市(櫃)公司及下市公司篩選出本研究所定義之財務健全公司及三階段財務危機公司:營收衰退30﹪以上或連續兩年虧損、債務到期違約未付或股票股利且現金股利未能發放、聲請重整或破產作為原始樣本,並以1998年作保留樣本,來驗證: 一、 在危機發生前一年或前兩年,以次序性分對數模式所建立之財務危機預測模型之正確區別率是否優於分對數模式之正確區別率? 二、 當越接近危機發生之時點,TCRI評等等級與各階段之落點是否會越明顯且越有相互呼應之效果? 本研究發現,因為次序性分對數模式將階段區分過細反而造成樣本之預測不易正確歸屬,因此以分對數模式所建立之預測模式正確區別率較佳,其中又以重整或破產作為財務危機之定義所建構之模型下之正確率在危機前一年為95.5﹪,且在危機發生前兩年之預測正確率為97.44﹪。 此外,當信用評等為1-3時較偏向本文所定義之階段0 ;而當信用評等等級為4-5級時列為階段1;當信用評等為6-8級時,本文將其歸類為階段2;而當公司信用評等為9-10時,列為階段3。而越接近危機發生之時點,評等等級與各階段之落點越明顯且越能相互呼應。

並列摘要


The predictive model of financial crisis forecasts the probability of such crisis in the future to offer major investors an index of precaution mainly based on the financial statements before the crisis of an enterprise. Besides, it can also provide the enterprise itself the further prevention. The research sifts out the financially sound corporations under the definition of the research and the ones with the three-phase financial crisis from the publicly-issued market, the OTC one and the one whose capital is refunded to investors from 1999 to 2002: Those experiencing a heavy decrease of above 30% in sales or consecutive losses of net income in two years; those presenting default on the liabilities or failure at delivery of stock and cash dividends; those declaring petitions of reorganization or bankruptcy. We take the above three sorts of corporations as the sample and keep the sample of 1998 to testify the following questions: 1. Is the precisely differentiating ratio of the predictive model of financial crisis built up by the ordinal logit model superior to that of the logit model in the one or two years before the crisis? 2. Are the more apparent the TCRI and locations of each phase and the more effective on echoing to each other, the closer time gets to the occurrence of financial crisis? The thesis reveals that the precisely differentiating ratio of the logit model outperforms that of the predictive model of financial crisis built up by the ordinal logit model because the predictive model of financial crisis built up by the ordinal logit model segments the procedure too trivially to attribute the prediction of the sample to which phases correctly. Of the three models, the precision ratio based on the reorganization or bankruptcy as the definition of the financial crisis appears 95.50% and 97.44% for one and two years before the financial crisis, respectively. In addition, we classify the TCRI of between 1 and 3, between 4 and 5, between 6 and 8 and between 9 and 10 in the phase 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively, by the definition of the thesis. The closer time gets to the occurrence of financial crisis the more apparent and the more effective on echoing to each other the TCRI and locations of each phase really are.

參考文獻


廖彩梅,2003,「盈餘管理與財務困難預警關係之研究」, 東吳大學會計學系碩士。
夏侯欣榮等,西元1996年7月,”台灣上市公司績效變動之預測模式”,管理評論,頁85-103。
陸怡伸,2003,「公司財務危機預測-考慮公司治理及關係人交易影響之實証研究」,中原大學會計學系碩士論文。
王怡心等,西元2000年9月,” 財務危機的預警”, 內部稽核,頁14-23。
James A., Paul Newbold & David T. Whitford (1987),Funds flow components, financial rations, and bankruptcy, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,Vol.14, NO. 4,P595—P606.

被引用紀錄


蕭淑貞(2006)。公司治理內外部機制對裁決性支出水準之影響〔碩士論文,淡江大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6846%2fTKU.2006.00851
鄭智勇(2008)。私立技專校院財務警訊和校務評鑑之實證研究〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fcycu200900556
陳生祥(2005)。運用資料探勘技術建構企業財務危機預警模式-結合財務與非財務資料〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fcycu200500684
陳振嘉(2006)。以類神經網路建構階段式企業財務危機預警模型〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fCYCU.2006.00423
楊涵雲(2009)。企業財務困難階段與特徵之研探〔碩士論文,朝陽科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0078-1111200915521484

延伸閱讀