模糊多準則決策分析於下一代國軍寬頻通訊衛星之評估

Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Evaluating The Next Generation Military Broadband Satellite Communication Systems

賴仲振(Chung-Chen Lai)

指導教授 ： 胡宜中

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200600062

摘要

寬頻通訊衛星已成為媒體多元化中不可或缺的一環，它可提供區域及國際間之各項通訊需求，目前更已成為世界各國軍事通信的主要手段；設計軍用衛星通信系統要以「最少的投資來發揮最大的效益，並能滿足通信需求」為目標，其設計主要考量重點有：軍用安全性的限制、針對電子戰的強軔性考量、機動通連性考量以及多元性功能考量。
本研究透過教科書、論文及資料整理，整合目前實際從事寬頻衛星設計研發之專家意見，建立了一套客觀、完整的「下一代國軍寬頻通訊衛星」評估層級架構，包括標的、三大構面、十四項評估準則及三個可行的替代方案。並分別針對中科院（CSIST）及國家太空中心（NSPO）的十五位專家進行問卷調查，藉由層級分析法（AHP），求得評估準則的權重值，以瞭解各評估準則的重要程度；並結合模糊理論（Fuzzy）及理想解類似度偏號順序評估法（TOPSIS），求出三個可行替代方案的最佳排序。研究結果分述如下：
一、針對三大考量構面評估：專家一致認為衛星本體的「功能需求」為使用衛星的首要考量因素，其次為「運用需求」，最後才是衛星系統的「品質需求」。
二、針對十四項準則評估：最重要的準則為「具備強抗干擾能力」、其次為「提供數位化戰場情資傳送」、第三為「高可靠度」。此三項準則各分屬三個不同構面，經共識度分析後，顯示經計算得到各構面權重最大的準則，也是各構面中，受訪者認為共識度最高的項目。相反的，較不重要的三個準則為：「提供IP網路交連」、「提供緊急救災任務」及「提供偏遠區域通信」，此三項準則均屬「運用需求」構面項下的準則項目。
三、本研究所得出的十四項準則，乃經由國內衛星專家所產生出來，可作為後續衛星設計的重要考量因素。
四、本研究最終目標乃選出最佳衛星替代方案，經由模糊理論及理想解類似度偏號順序評估法，擇優分析得出的衛星方案為（HASTI）。所得的方案與原先預期方案相符，可信度極高，可作為後續實際選擇衛星的較佳決策參考方案。

關鍵字

HASTI ； 強軔性 ； IP ； 層級分析法(AHP) ； 理想解類似度偏號順序評估法(TOPSIS) ； 機動性 ； CSIST ； NSPO ； 模糊理論(Fuzzy) ； 抗干擾 ； 寬頻通訊衛星

並列摘要

Broadband satellite communication has become the most important media of the future communication system. It can provide the global communication service all over the world. Nowadays, it is the major communication system for military use. The goal to design a military satellite communication system is ： ”Using the least investment to get the best profit, and fullfill the desired requirements”. Design concepts are concentrate on the following factors：safety constraint for the military purposes, robustness for the future electronic warfare technology, mobility to set up the communication station immediately, and the versatility for special communication use.
This research established an objective, completed evaluation hierarchy structure for “the next generation military broadband satellite communication systems”. We collect the research issues not only from the satellite papers, but also from the discussion with expertise that are now engage in designing or testing the broadband satellite communication systems. The hierarchy structure comes up with three levels：including the main goals, three aspects and fourteen evaluation principles. By the way we survey three satellite systems as the alternative items. The questionnarires were conducted on fifteen scientists that are working for CSIST and NSPO. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to determine the weighted values of various principles and to find out the important principles of the evaluation structure. Fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method are utilize to pick up the best alternative of the three satellite systems. The results of this research are summarized as follows：
1、Evaluation results about the three aspects：all the expertise have the consistent opinions, i.e., The most important aspect of the satellite system is the “functional requirements”, the second important aspect is the “utility requirements”, and the last concerned aspect is the “quality requirements”.
2、As to the evaluation results about fourteen principles：the most important principle is ‘Capability to enhance the robustness for anti-jamming”, the second one is “Capability to send the real-time information/data from the front troop”, the third one is “High reliability of satellite system”. We also use the consensus anlaysis method to prove the questionnarires results, and have the highly consensuality. On the other hand, the less important principles are：”Provide the service for linking with Internet Protocol interface”, ”Provide the emergency rescue communication service” and “Provide the remote site communication service”, the three less important principles are all belong to the “utility requirements”.
3、The fourteen principles conducted in this research are made by satellite expertise in domestic, which are the most important evaluation factors for future satellite design.
4、The final purpose is to select the best satellite system for future military use. We combined the “Fuzzy theory” and “TOPSIS method”, and find out that the best performance alternative is “HASTI broadband satellite communication system”. This answer is consistent with the result that we assess in advance. It is highly reliable and could be strongly recommend as the first priority alternative for future military satellite communication use.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy ； mobility ； HASTI ； AHP ； Broadband satellite communication ； CSIST ； NSPO ； robustness ； Internet Protocol ； anti-jamming ； TOPSIS

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