在不確定因素下使用模糊理論衡量並建構供應鏈存貨系統

Applying fuzzy logic to evaluate and construct an inventory system under uncertainty

麥鈞凱(Chun-kai mai)

指導教授 ： 邱裕方

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201301013

摘要

近年來，全球化競爭下市場需求變化瞬息萬變，因此企業透過供應鏈管理來提高客戶滿意度並降低成本以減少長鞭效應的影響。由於存貨是企業用來因應顧客需求不確定時的對策，因此一個好的存貨控制系統，將能大大提高供應鏈管理的績效，對成員來說也能因此增加企業競爭力。本研究提出以模糊理論為基礎，衡量供應鏈成員能力與存貨水準建構一存貨控制系統，用來找出供應鏈成員的最適訂購量，降低整體供應鏈存貨成本。
本研究發現，在使用傳統需求預測方法下，會因需求變化產生不同程度的長鞭效應，但是如果以在模糊控制系統來控制存貨時，則能減少長鞭效應帶來的影響。運用控制系統的優點，在供應商能力與庫存水準之間找到平衡，並在能力不同的情況中，計算出企業本身的最適訂貨數量，使能力高的企業保持較低的存貨水準，能力低的企業保持較高的存貨水準。由研究結論來看，企業運用模糊控制系更能降低總存貨成本，同時也具有良好的預測穩定性。

關鍵字

模糊理論 ； 供應鏈管理 ； 存貨系統 ； 長鞭效應 ； 需求預測

並列摘要

In recent years, the market demand changed greatly due to global competition. Since enterprises are using inventory as a strategy to meet customer demand under uncertainty, a good inventory system can raise the performance of supply chain management and increase the competitiveness of enterprises in supply chain. This study applied fuzzy theory to evaluate and construct inventory control system by considering capabilities and inventory levels of supply chain members. This system can calculate appropriate order quantity to reduce overall supply chain inventory costs.
This study found that using the traditional demand forecasting approach will produce different degrees of bullwhip effect when demand changes; however, using fuzzy control system to control inventory can reduce the bullwhip effect. The advantage of fuzzy control system is to find the balance between supplier capabilities and inventory level, and can calculate the optimal order quantity under different enterprise capability. In other words, the fuzzy control system makes supplier who has high capabilities to keep low inventory level and low capability to keep high inventory level to reduce the total cost of inventory and with excellent stability for prediction.

並列關鍵字

demand forecasting ； bullwhip effect ； inventory system ； Supply chain management ； fuzzy theory

參考文獻

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