Title

營建材料成本與房價變動之關聯性研究-以台灣五都為例

Translated Titles

A Study on the Relationship between Construction Material Costs and Variations in Housing Price: The Case of Five Cities in Taiwan

Authors

黃培如

Key Words

共整合檢定 ; 向量誤差修正模型 ; 單根檢定 ; co-integration test ; vector error correction model ; unit root test

PublicationName

中原大學國際經營與貿易研究所學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2014年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

李正文

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

過去許多文獻研究出營建成本、國民所得及房貸利率是影響房價的重要因子。房價的波動亦是學術研究之重要議題,探究如何掌握房屋市場波動之契機及預測房價變動,也是政府、企業及投資者非常重要的資訊。 本研究選定2001年第一季至2013年第四季之季資料,先以單根檢定變數之定態性,再進行共整合檢定以克服內生或外生變數認定上的問題,再以向量誤差修正模型探討房地產格價與總體經濟變數的短期及長期動態關係,最後以因果關係分析。 實證結果:(1)五都房價與營建成本、房貸利率及國民所得等時間序列的變數,進行ADF檢定後顯示各變數間為具有整合階次的時間序列。(2)五都對水泥、砂石、貸款利率、國民所得的影響因子,均具有一條以上的共整合均衡式,五都房價指數與各變數間確實存在長期均衡關係。(3)五都向量誤差修正模型結果發現,五都之中以台北市房價脫離長期均衡下,修正速度最慢,而其它四都以高雄市修正速度最快,另營建成本二變數在向量誤差修正模型中,其結果均不顯著,代表營建成本對房價不具修正效果,亦表示當營建成本降低,房價亦無法反映降價。房價與所得呈反向修正關係,符合社會經濟現況,與預期結果相同。(4)台北市的五都房價指數與各變數間Granger因果關係檢定結果,證明房價指數,無法成為營建成本、國民所得及利率的因。水泥及砂石的營建成本Granger影響國民所得;房貸利率Granger影響台北房價及國民所得;國民所得Granger影響台北市房價及房貸利率,大多數變數間存在著單向的因果關係,僅房貸利率與國民所得具有雙向回饋的因果關係。

English Abstract

Many studies developed over the past construction costs, national income and mortgage interest rates are an important factor affecting prices. Fluctuations in prices is also an important topic of academic research, to explore how to control fluctuations in the housing market contracts machines and predict changes in prices, is also very important information the government, enterprises and investors. This study selected quarterly data from 2001 to the first quarter of 2013, fourth quarter, first with a single stationary state of the test variables, and then test to overcome the problem of integration of endogenous or exogenous variables identified on, then the vector error correction model to explore the dynamic relationship between short-term and long-term real estate compare prices and macroeconomic variables, and finally to causality analysis. The empirical results : (1 ) Rates and five are construction costs, such as mortgage rates and per capita income variable time series , ADF test conducted among variables are displayed with integrated order of time sequence. ( 2 ) five are cement , sand, lending rates, national income factor , both with a balanced formula of integration between the five variables are price index with the existence of more than one long-run equilibrium relationship . ( 3 ) five vector error correction model results are found among the five are from the long-term equilibrium prices in Taipei , the correction slowest , while the other four are the fastest corrected Kaohsiung , another construction cost of two variables in the vector error correction model , the results are not significant , representing the construction cost of the amendment does not have the effect of prices , also said that while reducing construction costs and prices will not reflect the price. Inversely rates and the resulting correction relations , in line with the socio-economic status of , and expected results. ( 4) The price index of Taipei 's five are among the variables and Granger causality test results prove price index , not to become construction costs, national income and interest due . Construction costs of cement and gravel Granger affect national income ; mortgage rates and housing prices in Taipei Granger affect national income ; national income Granger affect prices and mortgage rates in Taipei , most of the variables between the one-way causal relationship exists only mortgage rates and National the resulting bi-directional feedback causality.

Topic Category 商學院 > 國際經營與貿易研究所
社會科學 > 管理學
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Times Cited
  1. 鄭浩軒(2016)。臺灣都會區房價影響因素之探討。中正大學財務金融學系學位論文。2016。1-44。