臺灣銷日花卉之經濟分析

台灣位處於亞熱帶氣候，雨量豐沛，氣溫適中，加上台灣農業改良技術十分先進，使得台灣花卉產業在全球的農業產業當中扮演著非常重要的角色頗富有競爭力。而台灣花卉在國際貿易方面，主要出口蘭花，而出口市場分布在已開發國家以及高消費的市場上，包括美國、日本及荷蘭等國。故本研究首先針對文心蘭銷日作分析外，也一併就火鶴花銷日加以探討，期能以實證分析方法探討近17年來台灣花卉銷日現況。本研究首先分析火鶴花及文心蘭之迴歸模型再就火鶴花及文心蘭取log後資料進行迴歸模型分析研究應變數採用台灣火鶴花及文心蘭銷日之出口量，自變數包括台灣火鶴花及文心蘭銷日之出口量、日本每人每季之GDP、日本人口數及新台幣兌換美元之匯率之變數來解釋其對台灣花卉銷日出口量之影響。研究發現，日本每人每季之GDP、日本人口數及新台幣兌換美元之匯率皆對台灣火鶴花銷日之出口量及台灣文心蘭之出口量有正向關係，模型具有統計顯著性。

關鍵字

單根檢定；複迴歸分析；出口值；匯率；日本人口數；日本GDP

並列摘要

Taiwan is located in the eastern part of Asia with subtropical climate. And it’s abundant rainfall and moderate temperature are very suitable for cultivating flowers. In addition , Taiwan’s advanced technology in agricultural improvement plays an important role in making Taiwan flower industry competition and be part of global agricultural industry. This study focuses on the international floral trading with an emphasis on Taiwan Anthurium and Oncidium exports. Since exports of Taiwan Orchid are mainly to some well-developed countries including the United States, Japan, the Netherlands. Therefore, this research examines the Taiwan floral industry over the past two decades to Japan. Methods of Unit root test, the multiple regression analysis are first performed for Taiwan’s Anthurium and Oncidium exports, respectively. In addition, the multiple regression models of Anthurium and Oncidium in logarithm terms are conducted. Dependent variables are Taiwan Anthurium sales volume to Japan and Taiwan Oncidium sales volume to Japan. Independent variables include Japanese GDP, Japan population and the US dollar exchange rate are used to explain Taiwan’s floral export to Japan. This study finds that all variables are positive relative to Taiwan’s floral exports to Japan.

並列關鍵字

Unit root test ； Multiple regression analysis ； Exchange rate ； Export value ； Japan GDP ； Japan population

參考文獻

蔡奇助、曾東海與王強生（2002）。基因工程與作物品種改良。亞熱帶農作物產

Abdulnasser, H. J. (2002). Export performance and economy growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach. Japan and the World Economy, 14(1), pp. 25-33.

Dickey, D. A., & Wayne, A. F. (1979). Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(36), pp. 427-431

Engle, R. F. &., Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251-276.

Said, S., & Dickey, D. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Model of Unknown Order. Biometrica, 71, pp. 599-607.

國際替代計量

臺灣銷日花卉之經濟分析

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