在現今全球化趨勢下,產品的競爭變得更加激烈,企業要求產品的成本最低、品質最佳以及快速且準時的交貨,因此精實生產就是個很好的選擇,在少量的安全庫存下,採取拉式生產方式,當有訂單時才生產產品,以避免產生過多的WIP(Work In Process),增加不必要庫存成本。也因為全球化的關係,供應商可能分配在世界各地,因此容易受到當地和全球各種影響,例如地震,洪水,金融危機,罷工,破產和恐怖分子或各種不同的原因,導致原料及零件不足、造成生產停擺,甚至會造成關廠,間接造成整個供應鏈網路嚴重的損失。 本研究建構一個多供應商與多加工站的等候線系統,利用階段型分配(Phase-type distribution)的狀態來描述不同的加工站及不同的供應商,其所對應的轉移率矩陣和初始機率,並且透過階段型分配(Phase-type distribution)計算顧客在系統的等待時間小於交付時間的機率,即稱為及時交付率(On-Time-Delivery-Rate;OTDR),更進一步探討多供應商與多加工站系統,在其中之一的供應商發生中斷後,系統能夠持續運作的時間,即代表系統維持性(Survivability),利用階段型分配(Phase-type distribution)來估計系統維持性(Survivability)。最後利用吸態(Absorbing state)來計算當供應商發生中斷後,系統的回復時間。
In the current trend of globalization, the competition becomes more intense, companies require the lowest product cost, best quality and fast and punctual delivery, so lean production is a good choice, in a small amount of safety stock under taking pull production methods, producing products only when there is order to avoid excessive WIP (Work In Process), and unnecessary inventory costs. Also because of globalization, suppliers may be distributed all over the world. The local and global locations of these suppliers make them susceptible to some disasters or disruption risks such as earthquakes, floods, financial crisis, strikes, bankruptcy and terrorists’ attacks, which may result to lack of raw materials and parts, production suspension, factory closure, and/or indirectly bring out serious losses to the entire supply chain network. In this study, we consider a system with multiple suppliers and outsourced manufacturer, to describe the state of the different stages of type processing station and different suppliers by Phase-type distribution, it corresponds to the transfer rate of the matrix and the initial probability, and calculates the probability of customer waiting time of the system is less than the time of delivery by Phase-type distribution, which is known as On-Time-Delivery-Rate. Computing OTDR (On-Time-Delivery-Rate) by phase-type distribution, we further study the multiple suppliers and outsourced manufacturer system after one supplier is suffering disruption by assessing how long the system can survive based on the existing resources and to calculate the response time when one supplier is suffering disruption by adopting the absorbing states.
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