匯率、出口與進口:台灣個別產業實證分析

Exchange rate, Exports and Imports: An Analysis of Taiwanese Individual Industry

陳俐吟(Li-Yin Chen)

指導教授 ： 林佑龍

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/NCNU.2015.00165

摘要

台灣資源有限，常年來仰賴進出口貿易，而匯率在進出口間扮演重要角色，故本實證研究旨在探討2000年1月到2013年12月之間，台灣各主要產業進出口值與台美匯率間的交互關係。本研究將產業分成製造業與非製造業兩類，並從中挑選出十個較重要產業，採用追蹤資料型態進行處理與分析分別探討進口與出口對匯率的影響，並檢驗是否符合本文預期。
實證結果顯示，針對製造業與非製造業大分類檢定時，製造業的出口值之增加會使台美匯率升值，然而；非製造業的出口值之增加不會使台美匯率升值，製造業的進口值與非製造業的進口值之增加不會使匯率貶值。分為十大個別產業來探討時，在出口值部份，只有礦產業的出口值增加不會使台美匯率升值，此可能是因礦產業的出口值佔台灣總出口之比重不大所致。剩餘九個產業的出口值之增加會使台美匯率升值。在進口值部份，只有卑金屬及卑金屬製品的進口值增加使台美匯率貶值，剩餘九個產業的進口值之增加不會使台美匯率貶值。從研究結果可看出台灣許多重要產業的出口政策均會影響匯率之穩定，故出口政策制定時，需考慮到此政策是否會造成匯率波動。

關鍵字

進口 ； 出口 ； 匯率 ； 追蹤資料

並列摘要

Over the past decade, international trade plays an important role for Taiwan because of the scarce of natural resource. Also, the exchange rate is a crucial point. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the Taiwan-US exchange rate and the exports and imports in 10 Taiwan's major industries, for the period of January 2000 to December 2013. All the ones, and the most 10 important industries are chosen.
First, I separate the 10 major industries into manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. My empirical results reveal that an increase in manufacturing exports would cause Taiwan-US exchange rate to appreciate. However, an increase in non-manufacturing exports would not cause Taiwan-US exchange rate to appreciate. Also, imports neither manufacturing nor non-manufacturing sector makes the exchange rate to appreciate. Second, the results of individual industry study show that an increase in exports in only industry (mining industry) would not make Taiwan-US exchange rate to appreciate, and this is because the proportion of the exports in mining industry to aggregate export is very low. Nevertheless, the increase in exports in the rest 9 industries would not make Taiwan-US exchange rate to appreciate. Besides, an increase in imports in only industry (metallic industry) would make Taiwan-US exchange rate to depreciate. But the rest the increase in imports in the rest 9 industries would not make Taiwan-US exchange rate to depreciate
My paper shows that industrial policy, especially policies on promoting exports, affects the stability of exchange rate in many major industries in Taiwan. Therefore, I suggest that policy makers consider the design of the industrial policy and the exchange rate that may be caused by the policy.

並列關鍵字

exports ； imports ； exchange rate ； panel data

參考文獻

(一)中文部份

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