證券訊息對投資判斷與決策影響之研究

本研究係透過證券訊息的判斷與投資決策之研究，尋求理論價值與市場價格的差異原因，其目的在於將本研究作為溝通理性與有限理性的橋樑，亦即將古典財務理論與行為財務學相結合。研究方法主要採用問卷調查法，資料處理所採用的統計方法，主要為描述性分析、差異性分析、相關與簡單?歸分析等。有效資料經統計分析歸納後，經研究發現得到以下結論：1、有投資經驗的受測者相較於無投資經驗的受測者，較為規避風險。2、金融業受測者相較於其他行業受測者，較為願意承擔風險。3、判斷與投資決策有一定的相關性，而其程度可能與風險偏好有關。4、樣本結果顯示，對正向訊息予以保守看待，而對於負向訊息予以積極看待。在認知偏誤下，使判斷偏離理性的思維，而決策行為所涉的風險態度，更複雜化整個判斷與決策的行為模型。任何存在於判斷與決策的情境,皆存在著系統性偏誤的內在表徵,當採用可用性、相似性等捷思法則進行判斷,在偏離理性分析的道路時,回歸理性的思考是唯一的方法。

關鍵字

預期效用理論；展望理論；四象限型態

並列摘要

This paper examines the judgement of securities information and investment decisions to explore the differences between theoretical value and market price, which aims to bridge rationality and bounded rationality, namely the combination of classical financial theory and behavioral finance. Research methods adopt questionnaires and statistical data processing methods, mainly for descriptive analysis, difference analysis, correlation and simple regression analysis. After statistical analysis, the main findings are summarized as the followings: 1, experienced investors are more risk-averse compared with those who has no investment experience. 2, the financial industries are more willing to take risks compared to those in other industries. 3, judgment and investment decisions have some relevance, and it may be related to the degree of risk preference. 4, the result shows that it takes a conservative outlook toward the positive message, while a negative message to be viewed positively. Cognitive bias leads to deviate rational thinking, and decision-making behavior involving risk attitude makes the model of the entire judgment and decision-making behavior more complex. Any situation exists in judgment and decision-making, there are inherent characterization of systemic bias when using heuristics, such as availability, similarity, etc., will deviate from the path of rational analysis, so that returning to rational thinking is the only way.