宜蘭冬山河流域洪患特性變遷與居民洪患識覺之研究

A Study of Flood Hazard on the Spatiotemporal Change and the Residents Perception in Dongshan Basin of Ilan County

羅煒婷(Wei-Ting Lo)

指導教授 ： 林雪美

國立臺灣師範大學/文學院/地理學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

災害識覺自1940年代起成為災害研究新觀點，近年來更將其納入風險評估中脆弱性指標之一。因此，本文從識覺觀點出發，以宜蘭冬山河流域為例，探討居民的洪患識覺及調適行為之時空變遷及其脆弱性。
首先，本文蒐集1961-2010年洪患案例歸納其時空變遷及成因特性，再根據洪患頻度差異選擇上、中、下游各一村，採年齡分層隨機抽樣75位居民，以半結構式訪談，輔以描述性統計，探究居民洪患識覺及調適行為的時空差異，並從中了解洪患脆弱性及其變遷；最後，將歸納出的脆弱因子進一步評估，以了解未來洪患風險的空間差異，進而提出防災管理之因應建議。
本文研究結果如下：1.冬山河流域洪患特性變遷呈現複雜性與變動性，長期而言洪患頻度略為增加，發生時間主要為8-10月，空間分布早期為大範圍積淹，自冬山河整治後(1982年)改集中於中下游低窪地區；1991年代起則轉為零星多變，2008年以來中下游地區又開始出現大面積積淹；災因1980年代前多為天然因子所致，後期則以人為及天然因子共同影響。2.居民洪患識覺差異主要展現在嚴重識覺及再發生識覺，越下游深刻比例越高。3.居民洪患調適行為無明顯空間差異，皆以預警後發布行為、即時行為較多，災後積極減災者比例少。4.洪患識覺變遷中，以再發生識覺較不深刻；洪患調適行為變遷則以預警發佈後、即時行為較明顯，災後多數居民並無進一步積極減災。5.洪患脆弱性變遷展現於社經條件(家戶結構、災損特性、住屋結構)、識覺行為、社會資源(資訊取得、社區網絡)以及政府管理(資源及支援)各項。6.根據洪患脆弱性評估，社經條件層面，在個人差異上可得知武淵村以獨居人口、身心障礙者比例最高，錦眾村則以一樓住屋結構及老幼人口比例為最，丸山村則以不識字比例最多；就社群差異而言，洪患識覺最為脆弱為丸山村，積極減災行為最為脆弱為丸山及錦眾村；再者，政府管理層面則以武淵和錦眾村在即時支援方面最為脆弱。

關鍵字

洪患 ； 時空變遷 ； 居民識覺 ； 冬山河流域

並列摘要

Hazard perception has been a new perspective of hazard research since 1940s; in recent years, hazard perception has future incorporated in the risk assessment as one of the indicators of vulnerability.
Taking Dongshan basin of Ilan County as a cause study, this study, first, collected flood cases from 1961 to 2010, and the data were analyzed in terms of spatial-temporal changes and causes. Besides, three villages – upstream, midstream, and downstream each – were chosen based on the flood frequency. Using age-based stratified sampling, 25 participants in each village were selected and interviewed. Interview data were analyzed and descriptive statistics were used to explore spatial-temporal differences of the residents’flood perceptions and their adjust behaviors. Flood vulnerabilities and its changes were also studied. Finally, factors of vulnerability were assessed in order to understand the spatial difference of future flood risk; and based on the assessment, this study provided disaster-reduction management suggestions.
The results can be listed as below: first, the characteristics of flood of Dongshan basin, including flood frequency, spatio-temporal distribution and cause, are complex and changing. Second, from upstream to downstream, there is a tendency that serious feelings and risk of resident’s flood perceptions are more obvious. Third, there are no significant spatial differences of residents’ adjust behaviors. Fourth, the changes of flood vulnerability are related to socio-economic factors (family numbers, household loss, house floor), perception behaviors, social resources(information accessibility, social network), and the management of government (resources and supports).

並列關鍵字

flood hazard ； spatiotemporal change ； residents perception ； Dongshan Basin

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