Title

莫拉克颱風之可預報度研究

Authors

鍾兆軒

Key Words

CReSS模式 ; 莫拉克颱風 ; 可預報度 ; 定量降水預報

PublicationName

臺灣師範大學地球科學系學位論文

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

2012年

Academic Degree Category

碩士

Advisor

王重傑

Content Language

繁體中文

Chinese Abstract

莫拉克颱風(2009)僅為一中度轉輕度颱風,卻於2009年8月7日至9日帶來遠超過許多強烈颱風之雨量,在台灣造成過去50年來最嚴重的氣象災害,其累積雨量(2855mm)甚至與世界紀錄相去不遠。各預報中心以及許多模式都顯示在即時預報的降水和累積雨量的預測都有嚴重不足的情況。 本研究採用的雲解析風暴模式(Cloud-Resolving Storm Simluator;簡稱CReSS),為一先進的高解析度模式,使用NCEP FNL分析資料作為初始及邊界條件之模擬(解析度為3 km)顯示,最早從8月3日0000 UTC就能成功模擬出莫拉克颱風的環流發展、雨帶演變以及影響台灣的降水時間和空間分布,累積24小時的定量降水預報(QPFs)之TS得分於8月7日與8日在門檻值為0.05~25 mm、50-100 mm、250mm、500 mm,分別有0.8-1.0、0.6-0.9、≧0.5、≧0.2的表現,為相當少見之高得分,此良好結果源於非常小的路徑誤差與在台灣地形上產生的相位鎖定降水機制。 另一方面,小區域即時預報實驗和大區域事後預報實驗顯示,初始時間從8月6日0000 UTC開始,也就是在南台灣發生最大降水的兩天前,模式已能預報出實際累積總降水的67%-80%,並有良好的QPFs技術得分。而初始時間在8月6日0000 UTC之前的預報實驗中,全球模式(模式之初始及邊界資料)的預報誤差是颱風路徑誤差的主要來源,也是造成定量降水預報不佳的主要原因。因此,使用高解析度並選取適當的預報範圍在預報上來說是有其重要性的,如此一來,在路徑誤差小的情況下,能夠提供更多的前置時間作因應,在極端降水事件發生前有更多時間去做防範、減少生命財產損失。 而針對初始時間在8月6日0000 UTC之前的預報實驗及GFS預報場本身,颱風均有提前北轉的現象而未登陸台灣,分析颱風半徑700公里內之深層平均氣流與綜觀場中高壓的相對位置得知,副熱帶高壓的位置是影響颱風能否登陸台灣的關鍵。此外,使用12小時平均之颱風移動向量與颱風的不對稱性作關聯,可以發現,颱風轉向前後、移速較慢之時,颱風之不對稱性也較為顯著。

Topic Category 基礎與應用科學 > 地球科學與地質學
理學院 > 地球科學系
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