少子化下，全臺學齡人口時空分布差異與影響因素研究

本研究希望透過分析民國99到105年村里學齡人口的資料，瞭解少子化下學齡人口的時空分布差異，並推估學齡人口分布變遷的影響因素。民國99年至105年台灣0至14歲之學齡人口分布主要集中在六都和新竹縣市，以北北桃的熱區比例最大，臺中市次之，新竹縣市與北苗栗縣居第三，高雄市和臺南市則分別為五個主要熱區中的最後兩名。據研究中的學齡人口結構發現，高雄市區之學齡人口數雖多，但實際占總人口之比例是低的，以人口結構來說，高雄市為台灣六都中少子化現象較嚴重的地區。本研究也發現以國小入學前的遷移量較多；學齡人口入學後，其遷移的狀況減少，此外，各地移出狀況較平均，但想移入的地區有集中特定區域的情形，此與明星學區有關。本研究最後從空間分析的角度探究社會經濟因素與傳播擴散效應對少子化相關應變數的影響。總結來說，社會經濟因子和空間的鄰近效應都同時影響台灣的少子化相關變數，以解釋力最高的國民教育階段學齡人口比例和較有代表性的出生率之迴歸分析來看，戶量愈高，山地原住民比例愈高，碩士學歷以上比例愈低，人口密度愈低，則出生率和學齡人口比例愈高；但社會增加率愈高，死亡率愈低，已婚人口比例愈低，綜合所得中位數愈高，出生率和學齡人口比例也愈高，此四個社會經濟變數與一般研究假設之都市化地區出生率較低的情況不同，但符合研究發現的趨勢，出生率和學齡人口比例集中於臺灣的都市地區。本研究發現臺灣出生率和學齡人口分布情形正在轉變，雖鄉村地區仍有許多傳統上高生育率的情形，但在少子化的趨勢下，高出生率和學齡人口也漸漸集中於資源較豐富的都市地區。

關鍵字

少子化；學齡人口；熱區；空間分析

並列摘要

This study hopes to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution differences of the school-age population under the minority population by analyzing the data of the school-age population in the village from 2010 to 2016, and to estimate the influencing factors of the school-age population distribution. From 2010 to 2016, the distribution of school-age population from 0 to 14 years old in Taiwan was mainly concentrated in Six cities and Hsinchu counties. The proportion of hotspots in Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Taoyuan City was the largest, followed by Taichung City, and the third in Hsinchu County and North Miaoli County. Kaohsiung City and Tainan City are the last two of the five major hotspots. According to the school-age population structure in the study, the number of school-age population in Kaohsiung City is large, but the proportion of the total population is low. In terms of population structure, Kaohsiung City is a serious phenomenon of the Lower Birth Rate in Six cities of Taiwan. The study also found that the increase and decrease of the school-age population in different villages in the townships and towns is related to the famous school district. The migration of the Elementary school is more than the migration of the junior high school. After the school-age population enters the school, the migration situation is reduced. Finally, this study explores the impact of socio-economic factors and diffusion effects on the number of strains related to minority births. In summary, the socio-economic factors and spatial proximity effects affect Taiwan's minority-related variables at the same time. The higher the proportion of the most educated population in the national education stage and the more representative birth rate, the higher the household size, the higher the proportion of mountain aborigines, the lower the proportion of master's degree, the lower the population density, the higher the birth rate and the proportion of school-age population; but the higher the social increase rate, the lower the mortality rate, the lower the proportion of married population, the higher comprehensive income, the higher the birth rate and the proportion of the school-age population. These four socio-economic variables are different from the low birth rate in the urbanization area under the general research hypothesis, but in line with the trend of research findings, the birth rate and the proportion of the school-age population are concentrated urban area of Taiwan. This study speculates that in the case of minority birth, the distribution of birth rate and school-age population in Taiwan is changing. Although there are still many traditionally high fertility rates in rural areas, under the trend of declining birth rate, the high birth rate and school-age population are gradually concentrated in urban areas.