為因應全球氣候變遷之衝擊,已成為本世紀各國追求永續能源發展之重要課題。本研究之目的在於利用政府公佈之歷年能源使用發展資料,並依據能源供給安全、經濟競爭力與環境保護三構面,進行能源指標之永續性實證分析。研究方法上,本研究利用計量經濟方法,進行指標之單根、共整合及因果關係檢定,了解P-S-R指標間之耦合性,並調整各構面指標權重進行情境模擬(亦即進行指標權重之敏感性分析)。本研究獲致如下發現:(1)台灣能源永續發展指標反應台灣特色;(2)利用國民生活指標計算方法進行指標轉換合理與簡便;(3)台灣永續能源指標系統P-S-R因果關係強;(4)整體P-S-R指標間耦合性高,具有政策回饋效果;(5)指標權重對於整體評估具敏感性,不同指標權重設定將影響評估結果;(6)人均能源消費與各產業部門能源消費成長率逐年提高是壓力指標績效低落的主因。基於上述分析結果,本研究提出如下建議:(1)指標架構之完整性必須加強;(2)指標間的基準年需一致;(3)提高資料的可獲得性。
In order to assess performance of energy development policies in Taiwan, This research use PSR framework (i.e. Pressure, State, and Response) to build up a “Sustainable Energy Development Indicators” This includes energy security, economic competitiveness, and environmental protection dimensions. Use the E-view tools to test “unit root” and “integration” of time series data. Besides, this study investigates coupling among PSR indicators. The results are obtained as follows: (1) Energy development has become more sustainable in Taiwan. In particular, environmental protection has the highest performance than other dimensions. (2)Response indicators are highly coupled with state indicators. However, pressure indicators are losing that coupling. (3) Weight scenario analysis finds both economic competitiveness and environmental protection dimensions are very sensitive. However, that the energy security dimension is more robust.
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