都市化與洪災脆弱度之空間系統模擬 ─以臺北都會區為例

System Simulation of Urbanization and Vulnerability to Flooding: A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Region

黃愍涵(Min-Han Huang)

指導教授 ： 黃書禮

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/都市計劃研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

氣候變遷產生的極端氣候(暴雨、颱風)，將會對都市造成重大的衝擊，脆弱度(vulnerability)的概念因此被提出。隨著人類活動的增加，都市發展也越趨密集或擴散，並且都市化不僅只限定在人口及經濟發展的成長，也牽涉到了土地使用的變遷。此外，都市脆弱度具有空間分布的特性，並且隨著時間的變化而變遷，但都市脆弱度如何受到都市發展所影響，影響的原因以及時間未被明確說明。
為得知都市發展與都市脆弱度之間的明確相互作用關係，本研究以Odum生態能量系統觀點，利用地理資訊系統中Model builder作為空間系統模型建置工具，建立「臺北都會區土地使用變遷模型」(臺北都會區生態經濟系統模型)。並將脆弱度組成之三要素暴露(exposure)、敏感度(sensitivity)及調適能力(adaptive capacity)納入土地使用變遷模型，以地理資訊系統中Model builder工具建構「都市脆弱度分析空間系統模型」。藉由模型的模擬成果探討脆弱度組成之暴露、敏感度及調適能力等三要素與都市系統變化之間的關係，討論都市化對於都市脆弱度時空面之影響。
由本研究之脆弱度評估結果可發現，暴露受到日之最大雨量及地形地勢所影響，而敏感度受到都市系統中都市土地的存量大小所影響。脆弱度為潛在衝擊與調適能力兩者的函數關係，當潛在衝擊越大或調適能力越小時，脆弱度則越大，相對的潛在衝擊越小或調適能力越大時，則脆弱度越小。而調適能力因資料取得緣故，僅有2006年份之調適能力能值之資料，因此當潛在衝擊愈大時，該網格的都市脆弱度愈大；當潛在衝擊愈小時，該網格的都市脆弱度越小。綜上所述，都市開發越高度的地區，除了因地形地勢及降雨量較高導致脆弱度較高，也會因為都市化的發展，而使潛在衝擊提升，進而影響使脆弱度上升。
本研究建立之「都市脆弱度分析空間系統模型」，進行之脆弱度評估為單向的都市發展影響都市脆弱度之研究，但脆弱度與都市的發展為交互影響的關係，因此，後續研究可朝向脆弱度回饋到影響都市地區次系統的方向進行。

關鍵字

系統模擬 ； 能值評估 ； 系統生態學 ； 都市脆度度 ； 土地使用變遷

並列摘要

Climate change result in extreme weather, such as heavy precipitation and typhoon, will bring significant impact on the city, the concept of vulnerability was thus proposed. With the increase of human activities, urban development is more and more dense or spread. Urbanization was not only related to population growth and economic growth, but also involved in land-use changes. Urban vulnerability has characteristics of spatial distribution, and change with time. But how urban vulnerability affected by urbanization, causes and impact of time has not been clearly explain. The purpose of this paper was to find out the relationship between urbanization and vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity).
This thesis developed system simulation model by combined land use change model and vulnerability assessment with system ecology and ecological energetic analysis, and named as urban vulnerability assessment of spatial system simulation model. The system simulation model created by ESRI ArcGIS model builder, and simulated composition of vulnerability from 1971 to 2031. During 1971 to 2031, the simulation result indicated that exposure was affected by maximum rainfall of day and topography, sensitivity affected by stock of urban area land use increased. Vulnerability is a function of potential impact and adaptive capacity, when the potential impact is high or adaptive capacity is low, then vulnerability will has great value. To sum up, the high development area has higher potential impact, thereby affecting vulnerability rise.
This study developed urban vulnerability assessment of spatial system simulation mode, the vulnerability assessment was one way evaluated from urbanization to vulnerability, but urbanization and vulnerability relationship was interaction. Therefore, the direction for further research toward vulnerability affect and feedback to urban system.

並列關鍵字

land use change ； emergy evaluation ； system simulation ； system ecology ； urban vulnerability

參考文獻

李俊霖（2008），社經代謝作用與土地利用變遷之整合與空間動態，臺北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文。

張力方（2014），都市脆弱度的空間分析與能值評估－以台灣西海岸平原洪災為例，臺北大學都市計劃研究所博士論文。

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